Tennis · M15 Monastir · 08/07, 12:00
Prediction: Daniel Bagnolini vs Timofey Stepanov
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Timofey Stepanov; the market gives 71% to Timofey Stepanov (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Daniel Bagnolini sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Timofey Stepanov arrives on a 4-6 run.
64%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Bagnolini 1455 · Timofey Stepanov 1501
| Daniel Bagnolini | Timofey Stepanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Timofey Stepanov (rating 1455 vs 1501).
- Note: Daniel Bagnolini makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Bagnolini | Timofey Stepanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-11.2 | 10.1-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 59.4% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 49.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Bagnolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 18/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/05 | Filippo Mazzola M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 10/05 | Max Kohler M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Kasra Rahmani M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/04 | Niels McDonald M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Iannis Miletich M15 Foggia · ~Clay |
0-1 | 2-6 | L |
Timofey Stepanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Yash Chaurasia M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Liam Branger M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Valentin Faure M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Andrew Johnson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 09/06 | Nav Dayal M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/06 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Lucas Marionneau M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/02 | Bernardo Munk Mesa UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/02 | Alexander Aney UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Bagnolini vs Timofey Stepanov?
Our model gives 64% to Timofey Stepanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.