Tennis · M15 Monastir · 08/07, 10:30
Prediction: Karim Mabrouk vs Tuncay Duran
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Tuncay Duran; the market gives 87% to Tuncay Duran (odds 1.08).
Over their last 10 matches, Karim Mabrouk sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Tuncay Duran arrives on a 8-2 run.
73%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karim Mabrouk 1539 · Tuncay Duran 1591
| Karim Mabrouk | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuncay Duran (rating 1539 vs 1591).
Statistics
| Karim Mabrouk | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-10.4 | 10.5-9.4 |
| Aces | 3 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karim Mabrouk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Enrico Rosellini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Arin Pallegar M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Markus Molder M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Ibrahim Kandil M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Samir Hamza Reguig M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 30/04 | Saveliy Ivanov M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Tuncay Duran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/07 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 05/06 | Alexander Donski Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Kris Van Wyk Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/05 | Stefan Vujic Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/05 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Edison Ambarzumjan Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karim Mabrouk vs Tuncay Duran?
Our model gives 73% to Tuncay Duran, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.