Tennis · M25 Kassel · 08/07, 12:30
Prediction: Dominik Recek vs Luca Castagnola
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Luca Castagnola; the market gives 56% to Dominik Recek (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Dominik Recek with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Luca Castagnola has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dominik Recek 1523 · Luca Castagnola 1532
| Dominik Recek | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Dominik Recek | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.1 | 12-10.5 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dominik Recek
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Tarek Erlewein M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Aryan Shah M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Georgi Georgiev M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Rudolf Molleker M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 09/06 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Adrian Oetzbach M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Justas Trainauskas M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/04 | Garrett Johns Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dominik Recek vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 53% to Dominik Recek, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.