Tennis · M25 Kassel · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Arian Barbic vs Matthew William Donald
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Matthew William Donald; the market gives 92% to Matthew William Donald (odds 1.02).
Recent form leaves Arian Barbic with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Matthew William Donald has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
79%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arian Barbic 1419 · Matthew William Donald 1518
| Arian Barbic | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 8% | 92% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew William Donald (rating 1419 vs 1518).
- Matthew William Donald is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Matthew William Donald makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Arian Barbic | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 14% (7) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.2-10.7 | 9.7-9 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 62% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arian Barbic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Giovanni Branchetti M25 Kassel |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/06 | David Fix M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 02/06 | Theo Papamalamis M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Antonio Voljavec M15 Doboj · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Artem Khuda M15 Doboj · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-0 | W |
| 12/05 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/02 | Yannik Kelm M15 Oberhaching · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/01 | Alex Knaff M15 Cadolzburg |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Matthew William Donald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/06 | Luca Potenza Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Fausto Tabacco M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 25/06 | Manuel Plunger M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Manuel Plunger M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arian Barbic vs Matthew William Donald?
Our model gives 79% to Matthew William Donald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.