Tennis · M25 Kassel · 08/07, 14:00
Prediction: Matteo Fondriest vs Nikolai Barsukov
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Matteo Fondriest; the market gives 81% to Nikolai Barsukov (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Matteo Fondriest sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Nikolai Barsukov arrives on a 5-5 run.
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Fondriest 1484 · Nikolai Barsukov 1454
| Matteo Fondriest | Nikolai Barsukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Matteo Fondriest | Nikolai Barsukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-10.4 | 9.3-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Fondriest
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Dennis Andre Dutine M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Ben Stecker M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Weis M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/04 | Aditya Vishal Balsekar Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 19/04 | Jean Paul Kadangah Kili Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Loann Massard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/04 | Nick Beamish M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/03 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/03 | Sebastiano Cocola M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
Nikolai Barsukov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Michel Hopp M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Pieter De Lange M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Manvydas Balciunas M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Lasse Poertner M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-0 | 7-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Lilian Marmousez M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Fons Van Sambeek M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Martins Rocens M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/05 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Calvin Mueller M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Daniel Siniakov M25 Louny · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Fondriest vs Nikolai Barsukov?
Our model gives 65% to Nikolai Barsukov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.