Tennis · M25 Kassel · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Mariano Dedura-Palomero vs Lasse Poertner
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lasse Poertner; the market gives 61% to Lasse Poertner (odds 1.53).
On recent form, Mariano Dedura-Palomero is 2-8 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lasse Poertner 7-3 over theirs.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariano Dedura-Palomero 1453 · Lasse Poertner 1521
| Mariano Dedura-Palomero | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lasse Poertner (rating 1453 vs 1521).
- Lasse Poertner is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Mariano Dedura-Palomero makes many double faults (8.6/match).
Statistics
| Mariano Dedura-Palomero | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-10.7 | 12.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 8.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 52% | 59.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariano Dedura-Palomero
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Facundo Yunis M25 Kassel |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Oleksii Krutykh M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Niels McDonald M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Cruz Hewitt M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 02/06 | Jim Hendrikx M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/05 | Sydney Zick M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/11 | Julian Alonso ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
1-2 | 8-9 | L |
| 28/10 | Martin Borisiouk ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Jakub Nicod Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jelle Sels ITF M25 Wetzlar · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Lasse Poertner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Michel Hopp M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Julien Penzlin M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Julian Forer M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 15/06 | Kim Johannes Niethammer M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Sander Jong Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Mac Visser M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Dorian Tremblay M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 14/11 | Gray Kelley UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariano Dedura-Palomero vs Lasse Poertner?
Our model gives 60% to Lasse Poertner, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.