Tennis · M15 Monastir · 08/07, 10:30
Prediction: Aziz Ouakaa vs Volodymyr Iakubenko
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Aziz Ouakaa; the market gives 66% to Aziz Ouakaa (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Aziz Ouakaa sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Volodymyr Iakubenko arrives on a 3-7 run.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aziz Ouakaa 1585 · Volodymyr Iakubenko 1485
| Aziz Ouakaa | Volodymyr Iakubenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aziz Ouakaa (rating 1585 vs 1485).
- Volodymyr Iakubenko dominates on serve: 6 aces and 40.4% break avg.
- Aziz Ouakaa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Volodymyr Iakubenko makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Aziz Ouakaa | Volodymyr Iakubenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.7 | 10.7-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aziz Ouakaa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Benjamin Gusic Wan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Jonas Eriksson Ziverts M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Ergi Kirkin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 19/06 | Viktor Frydrych M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Mathieu Scaglia M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Matthew Rankin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
Volodymyr Iakubenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 18/06 | Matas Vasiliauskas M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Amir Milushev M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Daniel Phillips M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 17/05 | Naoya Honda Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Alastair Gray Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/05 | Aryan Lakshmanan Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/04 | Dimitris Azoidis M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Louis Dussin M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aziz Ouakaa vs Volodymyr Iakubenko?
Our model gives 65% to Aziz Ouakaa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.