Tennis · W15 Rio Claro · 08/07, 15:00
Prediction: Maria F Herazo Gonzalez vs Ana Filipa Santos
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Maria F Herazo Gonzalez; the market gives 88% to Maria F Herazo Gonzalez (odds 1.06).
Over their last 10 matches, Maria F Herazo Gonzalez sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Ana Filipa Santos arrives on a 2-8 run.
76%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria F Herazo Gonzalez 1483 · Ana Filipa Santos 1410
| Maria F Herazo Gonzalez | Ana Filipa Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria F Herazo Gonzalez (rating 1483 vs 1410).
- Note: Maria F Herazo Gonzalez makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Maria F Herazo Gonzalez | Ana Filipa Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.2 | 0.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-8.9 | 6.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.7% | 49.1% |
| Break % | 38% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria F Herazo Gonzalez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Ana Carmen Zamburek W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Maria Florencia Urrutia W15 Luque · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Mariangel Estrella W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Agustina Soto Neira W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 10/06 | Camila Romero W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Francesca Mattioli W15 Brasilia |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Agustina Soto Neira W15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/04 | Bella Payne W15 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Jazmin Ortenzi W50 Chihuahua |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Ana Filipa Santos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Emily Zornada W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Alisa Danilova W15 Luque · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Lauryn John-Baptiste W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Berta Miret Avante W15 Monzon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/03 | Luciana Moyano W15 Santiago |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Agustina Soto Neira W15 Santiago |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/03 | Laura Badia W15 Santiago |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/02 | Francisca Jorge W75 Porto |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 01/02 | Maria Martinez Vaquero W50 Porto |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria F Herazo Gonzalez vs Ana Filipa Santos?
Our model gives 76% to Maria F Herazo Gonzalez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.