Tennis · M15 Hillcrest · 07/07, 11:00
Prediction: Preston Brown vs Marc Van Der Merwe
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Marc Van Der Merwe; the market gives 66% to Marc Van Der Merwe (odds 1.40).
On recent form, Preston Brown is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Marc Van Der Merwe 5-5 over theirs.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Preston Brown 1491 · Marc Van Der Merwe 1501
| Preston Brown | Marc Van Der Merwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Preston Brown | Marc Van Der Merwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.6 | 11.1-10 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 57.5% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Preston Brown
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Devin Badenhorst M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Willem De Waal M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/05 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 26/05 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Ofek Shimanov Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Peter Buldorini Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/05 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Seabo Saleshando M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/05 | Robert Strombachs M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Ntungamili Raguin M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Marc Van Der Merwe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Ofek Shimanov M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Filippo Francesco Garbero M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Ben Weintraub M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/05 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/05 | Jesse Flores M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Cooper McCarthy M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/05 | Simphiwe Ngwenya M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Giulio Perego M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Preston Brown vs Marc Van Der Merwe?
Our model gives 60% to Marc Van Der Merwe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.