Tennis · M15 Hillcrest · 06/07, 12:30
Prediction: Andreas Timini vs Henry Jefferson
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Henry Jefferson; the market gives 77% to Henry Jefferson (odds 1.22).
On recent form, Andreas Timini is 2-8 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Henry Jefferson 5-5 over theirs.
70%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andreas Timini 1456 · Henry Jefferson 1541
| Andreas Timini | Henry Jefferson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henry Jefferson (rating 1456 vs 1541).
- Henry Jefferson dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 60% break avg.
- Henry Jefferson is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Andreas Timini makes many double faults (7.4/match).
- Note: Henry Jefferson makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Andreas Timini | Henry Jefferson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-11.6 | 12-10.4 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 7.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 43% | 60% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andreas Timini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Devin Badenhorst M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Marko Maksimovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Essa Qabazard M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 11/11 | Felix Corwin M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Henrik Bladelius UTR Pro Clemson · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Andrew Hayduke II UTR Pro Clemson · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Tommaso Compagnucci M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Semen Pankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Henry Jefferson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Khololwam Montsi M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Rocco Piatti M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Ty Host M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Zsombor Velcz M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Jordan Hasson M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/12 | Robert Guna M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-1 | 10-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Luis Felipe Miguel UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Agassi Rusher UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andreas Timini vs Henry Jefferson?
Our model gives 70% to Henry Jefferson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.