Tennis · Wimbledon MD · 06/07, 12:00
Prediction: Arevalo/Pavic vs Rojer/Winegar
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Arevalo/Pavic; the market gives 73% to Arevalo/Pavic (odds 1.28).
On recent form, Arevalo/Pavic is 9-1 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Rojer/Winegar 10-0 over theirs.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arevalo/Pavic 1603 · Rojer/Winegar 1598
| Arevalo/Pavic | Rojer/Winegar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Arevalo/Pavic | Rojer/Winegar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (6) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-9.4 | 14.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 77% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 63.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arevalo/Pavic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Stevenson/Willis Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Bublik/Kyrgios Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Heliovaara/Patten ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Cash/Glasspool ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Bhambri/Venus ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Ram/Salisbury ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Arends/Pel French Open MD · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Galloway/Peers French Open MD · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Hilderbrand/Paris French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/05 | Harrison/Skupski ATP Rome MD · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Rojer/Winegar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Nys/Roger-Vasselin Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/07 | Bhambri/Venus Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/05 | Nam/Niklas-Salminen Challenger Wuxi MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/05 | Ayeni/Smith Challenger Wuxi MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/05 | Matsui/Santillan Challenger Wuxi MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/05 | Sun/Zeng Challenger Wuxi MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/05 | Noguchi/Sun Challenger Jiujiang MD · Clay |
1-2 | 20-21 | L |
| 30/04 | Delaney/Shimizu Challenger Jiujiang MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/04 | Kiger/Stalder Challenger Gwangju MD · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 24/04 | Puttergill/Sweeny Challenger Gwangju MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arevalo/Pavic vs Rojer/Winegar?
Our model gives 63% to Arevalo/Pavic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.