Tennis · Challenger Brasov · 05/07, 11:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Zsombor Piros
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Keegan Smith; the market gives 69% to Zsombor Piros (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Keegan Smith sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Zsombor Piros arrives on a 6-4 run.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1567 · Zsombor Piros 1562
| Keegan Smith | Zsombor Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 45.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Zsombor Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (4) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.4 | 11.8-9.1 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 59.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Bolt Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Zsombor Piros
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Stefan Palosi Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Radu Albot Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Ivan Ivanov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Zsombor Piros?
Our model gives 60% to Zsombor Piros, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.