Tennis · Challenger Brasov · 04/07, 11:10
Prediction: Guido Ivan Justo vs Keegan Smith
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Guido Ivan Justo; the market gives 59% to Guido Ivan Justo (odds 1.57).
On recent form, Guido Ivan Justo is 9-1 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Keegan Smith 6-4 over theirs.
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guido Ivan Justo 1589 · Keegan Smith 1559
| Guido Ivan Justo | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 45.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Guido Ivan Justo | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-7.7 | 14.9-12.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 56.5% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guido Ivan Justo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Sebastian Gima Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Juan Sebastian Gomez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/06 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Bolt Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/06 | Finn Bass Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guido Ivan Justo vs Keegan Smith?
Our model gives 57% to Guido Ivan Justo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.