Tennis · Wimbledon MD · 05/07, 12:00
Prediction: Heliovaara/Patten vs Pavlasek/Rikl
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Heliovaara/Patten; the market gives 73% to Heliovaara/Patten (odds 1.28).
On recent form, Heliovaara/Patten is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Pavlasek/Rikl 8-2 over theirs.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heliovaara/Patten 1576 · Pavlasek/Rikl 1579
| Heliovaara/Patten | Pavlasek/Rikl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Heliovaara/Patten | Pavlasek/Rikl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.3 | 14.2-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80.8% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 28.8% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heliovaara/Patten
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Kiger/Trhac Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Atmane/Sanchez Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Arevalo/Pavic ATP Queens MD · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Harrison/Skupski ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 19/06 | Stevenson/Willis ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Andreozzi/Guinard ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Granollers/Zeballos French Open MD · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Halys/Herbert French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Balaji/Demoliner French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Goransson/King French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Pavlasek/Rikl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Hijikata/Polmans Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Giron/Tabilo Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Mallorca MD · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Galloway/Kirkov ATP Mallorca MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Schnaitter/Wallner ATP Mallorca MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Bergs/Rinderknech ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
1-2 | 21-23 | L |
| 11/06 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/06 | Gille/Verbeek ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 31/05 | Nouza/Oberleitner French Open MD · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Cash/Glasspool French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heliovaara/Patten vs Pavlasek/Rikl?
Our model gives 63% to Heliovaara/Patten, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.