Tennis · M15 Hillcrest · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Henry Jefferson vs Rocco Piatti
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Rocco Piatti; the market gives 63% to Henry Jefferson (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Henry Jefferson with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Rocco Piatti has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henry Jefferson 1543 · Rocco Piatti 1567
| Henry Jefferson | Rocco Piatti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Henry Jefferson dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 51.5% break avg.
- Note: Henry Jefferson makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Henry Jefferson | Rocco Piatti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.3 | 12.9-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 51.5% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henry Jefferson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Ty Host M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Zsombor Velcz M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Jordan Hasson M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/12 | Robert Guna M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-1 | 10-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Luis Felipe Miguel UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Agassi Rusher UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Oren Ezerzer UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/08 | Nikita Filin UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Rocco Piatti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Dehan Van Deventer M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Diego Fernandez Flores M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 15/05 | Thando Longwe-Smit M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/05 | Jordan Hasson M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Marko Milosavljevic M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 08/05 | Lev Seidman M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/05 | Fons Van Sambeek M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Patrick Jozwicki M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henry Jefferson vs Rocco Piatti?
Our model gives 55% to Henry Jefferson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.