Tennis · M15 Hillcrest · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Devin Badenhorst vs Alec Deckers
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Devin Badenhorst; the market gives 54% to Devin Badenhorst (odds 1.73).
Over their last 10 matches, Devin Badenhorst sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Alec Deckers arrives on a 3-7 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Devin Badenhorst 1558 · Alec Deckers 1488
| Devin Badenhorst | Alec Deckers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Devin Badenhorst (rating 1558 vs 1488).
- Alec Deckers dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Devin Badenhorst is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Devin Badenhorst | Alec Deckers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-7.9 | 11-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 68.2% | 43.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Devin Badenhorst
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Preston Brown M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Andreas Timini M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Giles Hussey Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Akira Santillan Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/09 | Louis Bowden UTR Pro Waco · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/09 | William Freshwater UTR Pro Waco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Camilo Cano Gomez UTR Pro Waco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/09 | Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk UTR Pro Waco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alec Deckers
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kriish Tyagi M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Charlie Robertson M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Bernard Tomic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Justin Schlageter M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/05 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Maxime Chazal M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/04 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/04 | Tudor Batin M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/04 | Gabriel Ghetu M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Devin Badenhorst vs Alec Deckers?
Our model gives 56% to Devin Badenhorst, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.