Tennis · M15 Kayseri · 02/07, 11:00
Prediction: Maksim Shin vs Alessandro Coccioli
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Alessandro Coccioli; the market gives 50% to Alessandro Coccioli (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Maksim Shin sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Alessandro Coccioli arrives on a 7-3 run.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maksim Shin 1461 · Alessandro Coccioli 1531
| Maksim Shin | Alessandro Coccioli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alessandro Coccioli (rating 1461 vs 1531).
- Alessandro Coccioli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Maksim Shin makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Maksim Shin | Alessandro Coccioli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.4 | 9.5-8.6 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maksim Shin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Cagan Efe Tufekci M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Udit Kamboj M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Dev Javia M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Jack McGary M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Daniil Sarksian M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/05 | Francisco Faria M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/04 | Denis Klok Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alessandro Coccioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Aldin Setkic M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Federico Gargano M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Leonardo Taddia M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/05 | Cosimo Banti M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-1 | 9-8 | W |
| 21/04 | Tommaso Compagnucci M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/04 | Matteo Liusso M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/04 | Bastian Berenz M15 Dubrovnik · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 18/03 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Foggia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maksim Shin vs Alessandro Coccioli?
Our model gives 54% to Alessandro Coccioli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.