Tennis · M15 Hillcrest · 02/07, 11:00
Prediction: Ofek Shimanov vs Marc Van Der Merwe
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Marc Van Der Merwe; the market gives 50% to Marc Van Der Merwe (odds 1.83).
Recent form leaves Ofek Shimanov with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Marc Van Der Merwe has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ofek Shimanov 1481 · Marc Van Der Merwe 1513
| Ofek Shimanov | Marc Van Der Merwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ofek Shimanov | Marc Van Der Merwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12.5 | 11.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ofek Shimanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Chirag Duhan M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Preston Brown Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 24/05 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/03 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Phoenix · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/02 | Vilius Gaubas Davis Cup |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/11 | Florian Broska M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/11 | Giulio Perego M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 26/11 | Gian Gruenig M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/11 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Marc Van Der Merwe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Filippo Francesco Garbero M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Ben Weintraub M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/05 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/05 | Jesse Flores M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Cooper McCarthy M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/05 | Simphiwe Ngwenya M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Giulio Perego M15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/04 | Tuncay Duran M15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ofek Shimanov vs Marc Van Der Merwe?
Our model gives 52% to Marc Van Der Merwe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.