Tennis · Challenger Brasov · 02/07, 11:00
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Dimitar Kuzmanov
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Dimitar Kuzmanov; the market gives 54% to Luka Pavlovic (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Luka Pavlovic with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Dimitar Kuzmanov has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1505 · Dimitar Kuzmanov 1541
| Luka Pavlovic | Dimitar Kuzmanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 16.5 aces and 42.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Dimitar Kuzmanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12 | 11.4-9.6 |
| Aces | 16.5 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 22/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Tomas Barrios Vera French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Harry Wendelken French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 11/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Dimitar Kuzmanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Peter Makk Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Vijay Sundar Prashanth Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Nikita Mashtakov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Jozef Kovalik M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Antonio Voljavec M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Karlo Kajin M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Dimitar Kuzmanov?
Our model gives 50% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.