Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Ystads IF HF vs HK Malmo

Team pages: Ystads IF HF · HK Malmo

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.1Total

Ystads IF HF31.5

HK Malmo31.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

58% 42%

Ystads IF HF HK Malmo

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Ystads IF HF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDLLW

HK Malmo 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Ystads IF HF 1–2–3 HK Malmo (6 last)

HK Malmo38-38Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF34-31HK Malmo
HK Malmo34-28Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF29-30HK Malmo
HK Malmo27-27Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF28-38HK Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ystads IF HF 1522 · HK Malmo 1530

	Ystads IF HF	HK Malmo
Our model	59%	41%
Market	50%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 63.1 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -2.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.1Ystads IF HF 31.5 · HK Malmo 31.7

Match keys

H2H favours HK Malmo: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ystads IF HF	HK Malmo
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30 / 28.5	34.5 / 32.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 31	34 / 33.8
Est. result	32	32

Est. total63.1

Line O/U65.5

Diff.2.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.85

X7.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.80

Under 65.51.95

Diff.: 2.7 · Est. total: 62.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +41’	1.85	7.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ystads IF HF 1–2–3 HK Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 European League Qualification	HK Malmo	38-38	Ystads IF HF
05/09/26 European League Qualification	Ystads IF HF	34-31	HK Malmo
19/04/26 Sweden Handbollsligan	HK Malmo	34-28	Ystads IF HF
16/04/26 Sweden Handbollsligan	Ystads IF HF	29-30	HK Malmo
12/04/26 Sweden Handbollsligan	HK Malmo	27-27	Ystads IF HF
07/04/26 Sweden Handbollsligan	Ystads IF HF	28-38	HK Malmo

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Kristianstad	2	2	0	0	61	55	4
2	Lugi HF	2	2	0	0	56	53	4
3	Amo HK	2	1	1	0	62	60	3
4	OV Helsingborg	3	1	1	1	87	90	3
5	Ystads IF HF	1	1	0	0	36	26	2
6	Hammarby IF HF	2	1	0	1	65	60	2
7	Alingsas HK	2	1	0	1	62	58	2
8	IK Savehof	1	1	0	0	30	26	2
9	HK Malmo	2	1	0	1	61	59	2
10	Skanela IF	3	1	0	2	89	90	2
11	IFK Skovde HK	2	1	0	1	62	71	2
12	HIF Karlskrona	2	0	0	2	63	70	0
13	IF Hallby HK	2	0	0	2	56	63	0
14	Onnereds HK	2	0	0	2	54	63	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ystads IF HF

WWLWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	36-26	W
19/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	28-34	L
16/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	29-30	L
12/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	27-27	D
07/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	28-38	L
02/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	36-33	W
25/03	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	36-24	W
13/03	Hammarby IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	29-34	L
07/03	Eskilstuna Guif Sweden Handbollsligan	26-21	W
28/02	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	25-18	W

HK Malmo

WWWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	32-25	W
23/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	29-34	L
29/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	38-41	L
26/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	29-34	L
23/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	42-35	W
20/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	34-39	L
03/05	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	37-34	W
29/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	39-27	W
26/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	31-29	W
19/04	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	34-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ystads IF HF vs HK Malmo?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Ystads IF HF 58% · HK Malmo 42%).

How many points are expected in Ystads IF HF vs HK Malmo?

The model estimates 63.1 total points (Ystads IF HF 31.5 · HK Malmo 31.7).