Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Lugi HF vs IFK Skovde HK

Team pages: IFK Skovde HK

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.3Total

Lugi HF30.4

IFK Skovde HK29.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

40% 60%

Lugi HF IFK Skovde HK

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Lugi HF 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLLL

IFK Skovde HK 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDDW

Head-to-head

Lugi HF 1–1–4 IFK Skovde HK (6 last)

IFK Skovde HK33-32Lugi HF
Lugi HF24-25IFK Skovde HK
IFK Skovde HK33-26Lugi HF
Lugi HF32-34IFK Skovde HK
IFK Skovde HK30-30Lugi HF
Lugi HF28-21IFK Skovde HK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugi HF 1480 · IFK Skovde HK 1517

	Lugi HF	IFK Skovde HK
Our model	55%	45%
Market	27%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 60.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.3Lugi HF 30.4 · IFK Skovde HK 29.9

Match keys

H2H favours IFK Skovde HK: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Lugi HF	IFK Skovde HK
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.1 / 29.6	28 / 30.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.8 / 33.6	30.8 / 31.8
Est. result	30	30

Est. total60.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.30

X8.00

21.47

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.80

2 (-2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.90

Under 62.51.85

Diff.: 3.6 · Est. total: 58.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.47 → 1.47	Bet365 1.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:48 +38’	3.30	8.00	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugi HF 1–1–4 IFK Skovde HK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/24 Sweden Handbollsligan	IFK Skovde HK	33-32	Lugi HF
13/12/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	24-25	IFK Skovde HK
01/03/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	IFK Skovde HK	33-26	Lugi HF
01/10/22 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	32-34	IFK Skovde HK
13/12/21 Sweden Handbollsligan	IFK Skovde HK	30-30	Lugi HF
09/12/21 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	28-21	IFK Skovde HK

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Savehof	4	4	0	0	135	105	8
2	Hammarby IF HF	6	4	0	2	174	166	8
3	IFK Kristianstad	5	4	0	1	148	144	8
4	HK Malmo	6	4	0	2	185	182	8
5	Amo HK	6	3	1	2	191	182	7
6	Ystads IF HF	5	3	0	2	154	142	6
7	Alingsas HK	6	3	0	3	183	176	6
8	HIF Karlskrona	6	3	0	3	189	194	6
9	IFK Skovde HK	5	2	2	1	154	159	6
10	OV Helsingborg	5	1	2	2	139	145	4
11	Lugi HF	6	2	0	4	184	192	4
12	Onnereds HK	6	1	2	3	170	181	4
13	Skanela IF	6	1	0	5	172	188	2
14	IF Hallby HK	6	0	1	5	166	188	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugi HF	IFK Skovde HK
HIF Karlskrona	30-32 L	36-35 W
Amo HK	30-35 L	34-30 W
Alingsas HK	37-39 L	17-18 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Skovde HK (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugi HF

WWLWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	31-33	L
16/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	30-32	L
09/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	30-35	L
04/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	37-39	L
28/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	31-29	W
23/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	25-24	W
10/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	35-28	W
07/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	23-26	L
03/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	26-24	W
31/03	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	33-26	W

IFK Skovde HK

LWLLLLWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	34-30	W
15/10	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	29-29	D
03/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	29-29	D
26/09	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	36-35	W
23/09	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	26-36	L
15/04	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	17-18	L
12/04	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	28-31	L
07/04	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	26-36	L
01/04	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	25-23	W
25/03	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	30-34	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugi HF vs IFK Skovde HK?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Lugi HF 40% · IFK Skovde HK 60%).

How many points are expected in Lugi HF vs IFK Skovde HK?

The model estimates 60.3 total points (Lugi HF 30.4 · IFK Skovde HK 29.9).