Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: Lugi HF vs Ystads IF HF

Team pages: Lugi HF · Ystads IF HF

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.5Total

Lugi HF28.8

Ystads IF HF30.6

1X2

28% 72%

Lugi HF Ystads IF HF

Recent form · 10 last

Lugi HF 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLLLL

Ystads IF HF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Lugi HF 0–6 Ystads IF HF (6 last)

Lugi HF28-30Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF38-35Lugi HF
Lugi HF27-34Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF33-24Lugi HF
Lugi HF27-28Ystads IF HF
Ystads IF HF34-27Lugi HF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugi HF 1438 · Ystads IF HF 1531

	Lugi HF	Ystads IF HF
Our model	47%	53%
Market	14%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 59.5 points · Bet365 line 59.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.5Lugi HF 28.8 · Ystads IF HF 30.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ystads IF HF (rating 1438 vs 1531).
Ystads IF HF is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Ystads IF HF: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Lugi HF	Ystads IF HF
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 31.8	30.1 / 27.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31 / 34.4	29.2 / 26.6
Est. result	29	31

Est. total59.5

Line O/U59.5

Diff.0

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

16.50

X10.00

21.16

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.85

2 (-4.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 0.7 · Est. total: 60.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50
X	12.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00
2	1.10 → 1.16▲	Bet365 1.16

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +3’	8.50	12.00	1.10
21:46 +30’	6.50▼	10.00▼	1.16▲
23:05 +10’	8.50▲	12.00▲	1.10▼
23:44 +32’	6.50▼	10.00▼	1.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugi HF 0–0–6 Ystads IF HF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/25 Club Friendlies	Lugi HF	28-30	Ystads IF HF
09/08/24 Club Friendlies	Ystads IF HF	38-35	Lugi HF
18/12/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	27-34	Ystads IF HF
03/10/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Ystads IF HF	33-24	Lugi HF
06/03/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Lugi HF	27-28	Ystads IF HF
25/11/22 Sweden Handbollsligan	Ystads IF HF	34-27	Lugi HF

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HK Malmo	8	5	1	2	262	252	11
2	Ystads IF HF	7	5	0	2	217	188	10
3	IK Savehof	6	5	0	1	186	165	10
4	Alingsas HK	8	5	0	3	248	228	10
5	IFK Skovde HK	7	4	2	1	232	219	10
6	IFK Kristianstad	6	5	0	1	178	172	10
7	Amo HK	8	4	1	3	255	243	9
8	Hammarby IF HF	8	4	1	3	235	229	9
9	HIF Karlskrona	7	3	0	4	217	224	6
10	Onnereds HK	8	2	2	4	237	245	6
11	OV Helsingborg	7	2	2	3	200	214	6
12	Lugi HF	8	2	0	6	248	264	4
13	Skanela IF	8	1	0	7	229	261	2
14	IF Hallby HK	8	0	1	7	220	260	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugi HF	Ystads IF HF
Onnereds HK	32-37 L	29-30 L
IFK Skovde HK	32-35 L	36-26 W
HK Malmo	31-33 L	35-29 W
IF Hallby HK	25-24 W	31-28 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ystads IF HF (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugi HF

LWWWLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-37	L
25/10	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-35	L
21/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	31-33	L
16/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	30-32	L
09/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	30-35	L
04/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	37-39	L
28/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	31-29	W
23/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	25-24	W
10/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	35-28	W
07/04	VasterasIrsta HF Sweden Handbollsligan	23-26	L

Ystads IF HF

DLLWWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/10	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	37-22	W
25/10	Hammarby IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	26-24	W
22/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	29-30	L
16/10	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	31-28	W
11/10	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	23-29	L
03/10	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	35-29	W
23/09	IFK Skovde HK Sweden Handbollsligan	36-26	W
19/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	28-34	L
16/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	29-30	L
12/04	HK Malmo Sweden Handbollsligan	27-27	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugi HF vs Ystads IF HF?

Our model gives 72% to Ystads IF HF.

How many points are expected in Lugi HF vs Ystads IF HF?

The model estimates 59.5 total points (Lugi HF 28.8 · Ystads IF HF 30.6).