Handball · Sweden Handbollsligan · 28/10, 19:00

Prediction: Hammarby IF HF vs HK Malmo

Team pages: Hammarby IF HF · HK Malmo

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.2Total

Hammarby IF HF31.5

HK Malmo31.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

60% 40%

Hammarby IF HF HK Malmo

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby IF HF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWWWL

HK Malmo 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Hammarby IF HF 2–1–3 HK Malmo (6 last)

Hammarby IF HF31-31HK Malmo
HK Malmo37-32Hammarby IF HF
HK Malmo23-21Hammarby IF HF
Hammarby IF HF30-27HK Malmo
HK Malmo28-23Hammarby IF HF
Hammarby IF HF30-26HK Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby IF HF 1515 · HK Malmo 1546

	Hammarby IF HF	HK Malmo
Our model	56%	44%
Market	56%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 63.2 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +3.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.2Hammarby IF HF 31.5 · HK Malmo 31.6

Match keys

H2H favours HK Malmo: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Hammarby IF HF	HK Malmo
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.2 / 29	33.4 / 32.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.6 / 26.4	32.8 / 31.2
Est. result	32	32

Est. total63.2

Line O/U59.5

Diff.3.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.60

X7.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 62.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +51’	1.60	7.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby IF HF 2–1–3 HK Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/12/25 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	31-31	HK Malmo
12/11/25 Sweden Handbollsligan	HK Malmo	37-32	Hammarby IF HF
27/12/24 Sweden Handbollsligan	HK Malmo	23-21	Hammarby IF HF
19/10/24 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	30-27	HK Malmo
04/02/24 Sweden Handbollsligan	HK Malmo	28-23	Hammarby IF HF
20/09/23 Sweden Handbollsligan	Hammarby IF HF	30-26	HK Malmo

Standings · Sweden Handbollsligan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Savehof	5	5	0	0	165	134	10
2	HK Malmo	7	5	0	2	225	215	10
3	IFK Kristianstad	6	5	0	1	178	172	10
4	Ystads IF HF	6	4	0	2	180	166	8
5	Alingsas HK	7	4	0	3	215	206	8
6	Hammarby IF HF	7	4	0	3	198	192	8
7	IFK Skovde HK	6	3	2	1	189	191	8
8	Amo HK	7	3	1	3	224	222	7
9	OV Helsingborg	6	2	2	2	178	177	6
10	HIF Karlskrona	7	3	0	4	217	224	6
11	Lugi HF	7	2	0	5	216	227	4
12	Onnereds HK	7	1	2	4	200	213	4
13	Skanela IF	7	1	0	6	201	218	2
14	IF Hallby HK	7	0	1	6	198	227	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby IF HF	HK Malmo
Ystads IF HF	24-26 L	29-35 L
Alingsas HK	27-24 W	28-27 W
OV Helsingborg	26-23 W	32-25 W
IFK Kristianstad	27-28 L	38-41 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby IF HF (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby IF HF

WDLLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	24-26	L
21/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	27-24	W
16/10	Onnereds HK Sweden Handbollsligan	32-29	W
11/10	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	26-23	W
02/10	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	24-30	L
26/09	IF Hallby HK Sweden Handbollsligan	38-32	W
23/09	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	27-28	L
20/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	33-38	L
16/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	31-31	D
13/04	IK Savehof Sweden Handbollsligan	30-29	W

HK Malmo

WLLLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Amo HK Sweden Handbollsligan	40-33	W
21/10	Lugi HF Sweden Handbollsligan	33-31	W
16/10	Alingsas HK Sweden Handbollsligan	28-27	W
09/10	HIF Karlskrona Sweden Handbollsligan	34-30	W
03/10	Ystads IF HF Sweden Handbollsligan	29-35	L
26/09	OV Helsingborg Sweden Handbollsligan	32-25	W
23/09	Skanela IF Sweden Handbollsligan	29-34	L
29/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	38-41	L
26/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	29-34	L
23/05	IFK Kristianstad Sweden Handbollsligan	42-35	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby IF HF vs HK Malmo?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Hammarby IF HF 60% · HK Malmo 40%).

How many points are expected in Hammarby IF HF vs HK Malmo?

The model estimates 63.2 total points (Hammarby IF HF 31.5 · HK Malmo 31.6).