Handball · Czechia Extraliga · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: HC Frydek-Mistek vs Talent Plzen

Team pages: HC Frydek-Mistek · Talent Plzen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.9Total

HC Frydek-Mistek27

Talent Plzen29.9

1X2

28% 72%

HC Frydek-Mistek Talent Plzen

Markets

Under 59.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

HC Frydek-Mistek 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Talent Plzen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWWWD

Head-to-head

HC Frydek-Mistek 1–5 Talent Plzen (6 last)

Talent Plzen25-23HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek28-31Talent Plzen
Talent Plzen33-24HC Frydek-Mistek
Talent Plzen39-28HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek23-22Talent Plzen
HC Frydek-Mistek27-41Talent Plzen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Frydek-Mistek 1401 · Talent Plzen 1575

	HC Frydek-Mistek	Talent Plzen
Our model	35%	65%
Market	21%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 56.9 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · -2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.9HC Frydek-Mistek 27 · Talent Plzen 29.9

Over / Under 59.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~57 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Talent Plzen (rating 1401 vs 1575).
Talent Plzen is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Talent Plzen: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Frydek-Mistek	Talent Plzen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.2 / 30.7	29.4 / 27.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	24 / 27.8	30 / 26.6
Est. result	27	30

Est. total56.9

Line O/U59.5

Diff.2.6

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.25

X9.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 59.52.00

Under 59.51.72

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 56.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.25▲	Bet365 4.25
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.37 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:46 +6’	3.80	9.00	1.37
13:02 +3’	4.25▲	9.00	1.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 59.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Frydek-Mistek 1–0–5 Talent Plzen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Czechia Extraliga	Talent Plzen	25-23	HC Frydek-Mistek
23/11/25 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	28-31	Talent Plzen
18/12/24 Czechia Cup	Talent Plzen	33-24	HC Frydek-Mistek
24/11/24 Czechia Extraliga	Talent Plzen	39-28	HC Frydek-Mistek
08/09/24 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	23-22	Talent Plzen
29/03/24 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	27-41	Talent Plzen

Standings · Czechia Extraliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nove Veseli	3	3	0	0	90	70	6
2	Banik Karvina	3	3	0	0	101	92	6
3	Dukla Praha	3	2	0	1	111	92	4
4	Talent Plzen	2	1	1	0	61	56	3
5	HK Lovosice	3	1	1	1	91	94	3
6	HC Zubri	2	1	0	1	62	58	2
7	KP Brno 1920	2	1	0	1	60	59	2
8	HC Zlin	3	1	0	2	82	89	2
9	HBC Jicin	3	1	0	2	79	86	2
10	KH Koprivnice	3	1	0	2	75	86	2
11	HC Frydek-Mistek	2	0	0	2	50	61	0
12	HBC Strakonice 1921	3	0	0	3	90	109	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Frydek-Mistek	Talent Plzen
HK Lovosice	22-27 L	29-29 D
Banik Karvina	30-36 L	29-28 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Talent Plzen (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Frydek-Mistek

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	23-30	L
06/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	27-31	L
29/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	14-25	L
25/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	34-26	W
18/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	22-27	L
12/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	31-36	L
01/04	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	30-36	L
25/03	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	25-31	L
24/03	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	33-40	L
13/03	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	23-25	L

Talent Plzen

WDWLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	29-29	D
05/09	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	32-27	W
09/05	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	29-28	W
03/05	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	31-24	W
02/05	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	29-25	W
26/04	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	23-27	L
25/04	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	34-35	L
18/04	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	27-24	W
17/04	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	29-29	D
12/04	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	31-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Frydek-Mistek vs Talent Plzen?

Our model gives 72% to Talent Plzen.

How many points are expected in HC Frydek-Mistek vs Talent Plzen?

The model estimates 56.9 total points (HC Frydek-Mistek 27 · Talent Plzen 29.9).

Over or under 59.5 points?

Recent history points to under 59.5 points (70%).