Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 02/09, 19:00

Prediction: Aalborg Handbold vs Fredericia HK

Team pages: Aalborg Handbold · Fredericia HK

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.8Total

Aalborg Handbold33.6

Fredericia HK29.2

1X2

84% 16%

Aalborg Handbold Fredericia HK

Recent form · 10 last

Aalborg Handbold 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Fredericia HK 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Aalborg Handbold 5–1 Fredericia HK (6 last)

Aalborg Handbold36-26Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK41-36Aalborg Handbold
Fredericia HK27-34Aalborg Handbold
Aalborg Handbold38-20Fredericia HK
Aalborg Handbold32-30Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK26-32Aalborg Handbold

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalborg Handbold 1594 · Fredericia HK 1478

	Aalborg Handbold	Fredericia HK
Our model	74%	26%
Market	86%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 62.8 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.8Aalborg Handbold 33.6 · Fredericia HK 29.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aalborg Handbold (rating 1594 vs 1478).
Aalborg Handbold is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours Aalborg Handbold: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aalborg Handbold	Fredericia HK
Points F\|A (Last 10)	34.6 / 29.6	30.2 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33 / 30.4	28.4 / 31.4
Est. result	34	29

Est. total62.8

Line O/U61.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.10

X16.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.88

2 (+6.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 1.3 · Est. total: 62.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
X	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:35 +12’	1.10	16.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalborg Handbold 5–0–1 Fredericia HK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	36-26	Fredericia HK
04/04/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	41-36	Aalborg Handbold
21/02/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	27-34	Aalborg Handbold
18/10/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	38-20	Fredericia HK
14/12/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	32-30	Fredericia HK
21/09/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	26-32	Aalborg Handbold

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	2	2	0	69	60	4
2	Ribe Esbjerg HH	2	2	0	65	59	4
3	Aalborg Handbold	2	2	0	63	57	4
4	Fredericia HK	2	1	1	58	55	2
5	Mors-Thy Handbold	2	1	1	66	65	2
6	Skjern Handbold	2	1	1	69	65	2
7	Skanderborg Handbold	2	1	1	71	68	2
8	Team Tvis Holstebro	2	1	1	66	64	2
9	SonderjyskE	2	1	1	64	65	2
10	KIF Kolding Kbh.	2	1	1	66	68	2
11	Nordsjaelland Handbold	2	1	1	57	63	2
12	Skive FH	2	0	2	67	71	0
13	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	2	0	2	65	70	0
14	TMS Ringsted	2	0	2	64	80	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalborg Handbold	Fredericia HK
Mors-Thy Handbold	37-35 W	33-31 W
GOG	35-32 W	27-29 L
Skjern Handbold	34-31 W	31-37 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aalborg Handbold (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aalborg Handbold

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	31-29	W
26/08	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
04/06	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-31	W
31/05	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	30-29	W
23/05	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	37-35	W
20/05	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	40-21	W
10/05	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	35-32	W
02/05	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	36-26	W
25/04	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
18/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	36-34	W

Fredericia HK

LWWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	27-31	L
26/08	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-24	W
10/05	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-37	L
02/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-36	L
25/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	27-29	L
18/04	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L
11/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	28-23	W
04/04	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	41-36	W
28/03	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-31	W
24/03	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	26-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalborg Handbold vs Fredericia HK?

Our model gives 84% to Aalborg Handbold.

How many points are expected in Aalborg Handbold vs Fredericia HK?

The model estimates 62.8 total points (Aalborg Handbold 33.6 · Fredericia HK 29.2).