Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 06/09, 15:30

Prediction: Mors-Thy Handbold vs GOG

Team pages: Mors-Thy Handbold · GOG

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.2Total

Mors-Thy Handbold31.4

GOG33.8

1X2

31% 69%

Mors-Thy Handbold GOG

Markets

Under 66.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Mors-Thy Handbold 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLWL

GOG 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Mors-Thy Handbold 2–4 GOG (6 last)

Mors-Thy Handbold29-35GOG
GOG38-31Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold34-40GOG
GOG39-31Mors-Thy Handbold
GOG27-32Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold35-27GOG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mors-Thy Handbold 1446 · GOG 1535

	Mors-Thy Handbold	GOG
Our model	47%	53%
Market	19%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 65.2 points · Bet365 line 66.5 · -1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.2Mors-Thy Handbold 31.4 · GOG 33.8

Over / Under 66.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~64.1 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GOG (rating 1446 vs 1535).
GOG is a clear favourite (69% market).
H2H favours GOG: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Mors-Thy Handbold	GOG
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.1 / 34.1	32.6 / 30.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 34.6	34.2 / 29.8
Est. result	31	34

Est. total65.2

Line O/U66.5

Diff.1.3

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

15.00

X11.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.95

2 (-3.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 66.51.88

Under 66.51.88

Diff.: 2.45 · Est. total: 64.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +7’	5.00	11.00	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mors-Thy Handbold 2–0–4 GOG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	29-35	GOG
31/05/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	GOG	38-31	Mors-Thy Handbold
22/02/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	34-40	GOG
19/10/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	GOG	39-31	Mors-Thy Handbold
12/04/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	GOG	27-32	Mors-Thy Handbold
29/11/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	35-27	GOG

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ribe Esbjerg HH	3	3	0	0	96	87	6
2	GOG	3	2	1	0	98	89	5
3	Fredericia HK	3	2	0	1	91	81	4
4	Skjern Handbold	3	2	0	1	104	97	4
5	Skanderborg Handbold	3	2	0	1	105	101	4
6	Aalborg Handbold	3	2	0	1	89	90	4
7	Team Tvis Holstebro	3	1	1	1	95	93	3
8	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	3	1	0	2	98	98	2
9	Mors-Thy Handbold	3	1	0	2	98	100	2
10	Nordsjaelland Handbold	3	1	0	2	90	97	2
11	KIF Kolding Kbh.	3	1	0	2	94	99	2
12	SonderjyskE	3	1	0	2	92	98	2
13	Skive FH	3	1	0	2	107	106	2
14	TMS Ringsted	3	0	0	3	99	120	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mors-Thy Handbold	GOG
Skjern Handbold	32-35 L	35-29 W
Aalborg Handbold	35-37 L	32-35 L
Team Tvis Holstebro	30-31 L	29-29 D
Skanderborg Handbold	35-29 W	34-31 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mors-Thy Handbold

WLWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
30/08	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
26/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L
04/06	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-35	L
31/05	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	31-38	L
23/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-37	L
20/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	21-40	L
10/05	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	32-31	W
01/05	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	30-31	L
23/04	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W

GOG

WWLDLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/09	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	29-29	D
29/08	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
25/08	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W
04/06	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W
31/05	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	38-31	W
23/05	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-33	L
20/05	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-32	D
10/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
03/05	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	36-27	W
25/04	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	29-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mors-Thy Handbold vs GOG?

Our model gives 69% to GOG.

How many points are expected in Mors-Thy Handbold vs GOG?

The model estimates 65.2 total points (Mors-Thy Handbold 31.4 · GOG 33.8).

Over or under 66.5 points?

Recent history points to under 66.5 points (70%).