Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Mors-Thy Handbold vs SonderjyskE

Team pages: Mors-Thy Handbold · SonderjyskE

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.7Total

Mors-Thy Handbold31.2

SonderjyskE32.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Mors-Thy Handbold SonderjyskE

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Mors-Thy Handbold 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWWLL

SonderjyskE 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Mors-Thy Handbold 4–2–0 SonderjyskE (6 last)

Mors-Thy Handbold36-36SonderjyskE
SonderjyskE30-30Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold34-32SonderjyskE
SonderjyskE30-35Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold30-25SonderjyskE
SonderjyskE34-35Mors-Thy Handbold

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mors-Thy Handbold 1467 · SonderjyskE 1529

	Mors-Thy Handbold	SonderjyskE
Our model	51%	49%
Market	37%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 63.7 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.7Mors-Thy Handbold 31.2 · SonderjyskE 32.5

Match keys

H2H favours Mors-Thy Handbold: 4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Mors-Thy Handbold	SonderjyskE
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.3 / 32.9	31.5 / 31
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29 / 31.2	31.6 / 31.2
Est. result	31	33

Est. total63.7

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.55

X8.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.88

Under 64.51.88

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 62.85

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 17:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.88 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.45 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:51 +4’	1.88	8.50	2.45
14:47 +10’	2.00▲	8.50	2.25▼
15:59 +1’	1.88▼	8.50	2.45▲
16:45 +12’	2.00▲	8.50	2.25▼
14:14 +6’	2.55▲	8.50	1.85▼
15:51 +32’	2.35▼	8.50	1.90▲
17:32 +6’	2.55▲	8.50	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mors-Thy Handbold 4–2–0 SonderjyskE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/12/25 Denmark Cup	Mors-Thy Handbold	36-36	SonderjyskE
10/12/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	SonderjyskE	30-30	Mors-Thy Handbold
12/09/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	34-32	SonderjyskE
20/02/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	SonderjyskE	30-35	Mors-Thy Handbold
06/10/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	30-25	SonderjyskE
09/03/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	SonderjyskE	34-35	Mors-Thy Handbold

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	8	7	1	0	272	233	15
2	Ribe Esbjerg HH	8	6	1	1	265	246	13
3	Aalborg Handbold	8	5	1	2	249	248	11
4	Skjern Handbold	8	5	0	3	270	248	10
5	Skanderborg Handbold	8	5	0	3	273	267	10
6	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	8	4	1	3	252	253	9
7	SonderjyskE	8	4	0	4	250	254	8
8	Fredericia HK	8	4	0	4	239	218	8
9	Team Tvis Holstebro	8	3	1	4	245	246	7
10	Nordsjaelland Handbold	8	3	1	4	239	245	7
11	Mors-Thy Handbold	8	3	0	5	243	256	6
12	KIF Kolding Kbh.	8	2	1	5	250	273	5
13	Skive FH	8	1	0	7	270	289	2
14	TMS Ringsted	8	0	1	7	244	285	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mors-Thy Handbold	SonderjyskE
TMS Ringsted	32-28 W	36-31 W
Skive FH	34-30 W	36-33 W
GOG	29-32 L	29-35 L
KIF Kolding Kbh.	34-31 W	31-32 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mors-Thy Handbold (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mors-Thy Handbold

LLLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	21-28	L
26/09	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	29-38	L
19/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
11/09	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	34-30	W
06/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-32	L
02/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
30/08	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
26/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L
04/06	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-35	L
31/05	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	31-38	L

SonderjyskE

WDLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	36-31	W
28/09	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	31-30	W
16/09	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	31-32	L
13/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-35	L
08/09	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	31-28	W
03/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	28-33	L
30/08	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	36-33	W
26/08	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	28-32	L
25/04	HOJ Elite Denmark Handboldligaen	34-34	D
19/04	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	31-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mors-Thy Handbold vs SonderjyskE?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Mors-Thy Handbold 46% · SonderjyskE 54%).

How many points are expected in Mors-Thy Handbold vs SonderjyskE?

The model estimates 63.7 total points (Mors-Thy Handbold 31.2 · SonderjyskE 32.5).