Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 07/11, 17:30

Prediction: TUS Lintfort (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)

Team pages: TUS Lintfort (W) · HSG Freiburg (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.6Total

TUS Lintfort (W)29.4

HSG Freiburg (W)30.2

1X2

34% 66%

TUS Lintfort (W) HSG Freiburg (W)

Recent form · 10 last

TUS Lintfort (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLW

HSG Freiburg (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLWD

Head-to-head

TUS Lintfort (W) 4–2 HSG Freiburg (W) (6 last)

TUS Lintfort (W)20-28HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)28-25TUS Lintfort (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)28-33TUS Lintfort (W)
TUS Lintfort (W)36-22HSG Freiburg (W)
TUS Lintfort (W)33-19HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)26-29TUS Lintfort (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TUS Lintfort (W) 1402 · HSG Freiburg (W) 1464

	TUS Lintfort (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
Our model	51%	49%
Market	20%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 59.6 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -1.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.6TUS Lintfort (W) 29.4 · HSG Freiburg (W) 30.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HSG Freiburg (W) (rating 1402 vs 1464).
HSG Freiburg (W) is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours TUS Lintfort (W): 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TUS Lintfort (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	25.2 / 31.3	30.5 / 33.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.8 / 30.4	33.6 / 31.2
Est. result	29	30

Est. total59.6

Line O/U61.5

Diff.1.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.50

X10.00

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.75

2 (-4.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.75

Under 61.51.95

Diff.: 1.05 · Est. total: 60.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	9.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00
2	1.45 → 1.27▼	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +16’	3.30	9.00	1.45
12:39 +40’	4.50▲	10.00▲	1.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TUS Lintfort (W) 4–0–2 HSG Freiburg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	TUS Lintfort (W)	20-28	HSG Freiburg (W)
25/10/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	28-25	TUS Lintfort (W)
13/04/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	28-33	TUS Lintfort (W)
18/11/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	TUS Lintfort (W)	36-22	HSG Freiburg (W)
20/03/21 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	TUS Lintfort (W)	33-19	HSG Freiburg (W)
31/10/20 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	26-29	TUS Lintfort (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	7	6	1	0	252	195	13
2	Fuchse Berlin (W)	7	5	2	0	240	199	12
3	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	7	6	0	1	217	189	12
4	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	7	6	0	1	219	199	12
5	HC Rodertal (W)	7	5	0	2	221	183	10
6	VfL Waiblingen (W)	7	5	0	2	209	178	10
7	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	6	4	1	1	191	155	9
8	Bergischer HC (W)	7	4	1	2	210	196	9
9	HSG Freiburg (W)	7	2	1	4	218	234	5
10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	6	2	0	4	156	188	4
11	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	7	2	0	5	193	211	4
12	SV Werder Bremen (W)	7	2	0	5	204	230	4
13	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	7	1	1	5	211	247	3
14	TUS Lintfort (W)	7	1	0	6	178	210	2
15	SV Todesfelde (W)	7	0	1	6	201	233	1
16	Rostocker HC (W)	7	0	0	7	179	252	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TUS Lintfort (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
HC Rodertal (W)	23-31 L	25-40 L
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	15-31 L	33-33 D
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	24-27 L	33-35 L
SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	27-37 L	22-39 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TUS Lintfort (W)

LLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-24	W
18/10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-27	L
10/10	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	23-31	L
20/09	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-35	L
12/09	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-35	L
05/09	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	15-31	L
29/08	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-27	L
30/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-37	L
24/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-27	L
16/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-39	L

HSG Freiburg (W)

LLLLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-33	D
24/10	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	40-30	W
17/10	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-35	L
10/10	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-29	L
19/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	38-29	W
12/09	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-39	L
05/09	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-39	L
30/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-40	L
23/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-34	L
17/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TUS Lintfort (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)?

Our model gives 66% to HSG Freiburg (W).

How many points are expected in TUS Lintfort (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)?

The model estimates 59.6 total points (TUS Lintfort (W) 29.4 · HSG Freiburg (W) 30.2).