Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: HSG Freiburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)

Team pages: HSG Freiburg (W) · SV Werder Bremen (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.4Total

HSG Freiburg (W)32

SV Werder Bremen (W)31.4

1X2

63% 37%

HSG Freiburg (W) SV Werder Bremen (W)

Markets

Over 60.5 points 80%

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Freiburg (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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SV Werder Bremen (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLWW

Head-to-head

HSG Freiburg (W) 2–1–3 SV Werder Bremen (W) (6 last)

HSG Freiburg (W)36-29SV Werder Bremen (W)
SV Werder Bremen (W)23-23HSG Freiburg (W)
SV Werder Bremen (W)26-20HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)32-24SV Werder Bremen (W)
SV Werder Bremen (W)38-29HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)26-30SV Werder Bremen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Freiburg (W) 1478 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 1479

	HSG Freiburg (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
Our model	60%	40%
Market	58%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 63.4 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +2.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.4HSG Freiburg (W) 32 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 31.4

Over / Under 60.5Over · 80%recent trend · ~62.9 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours SV Werder Bremen (W): 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Freiburg (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31 / 33.6	30.6 / 32
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 31	31.4 / 30
Est. result	32	31

Est. total63.4

Line O/U60.5

Diff.2.9

Over / Under80% / 20%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

X8.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 3.1 · Est. total: 63.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:18	1.55	8.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Freiburg (W) 2–1–3 SV Werder Bremen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	36-29	SV Werder Bremen (W)
20/12/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SV Werder Bremen (W)	23-23	HSG Freiburg (W)
16/03/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SV Werder Bremen (W)	26-20	HSG Freiburg (W)
28/10/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	32-24	SV Werder Bremen (W)
08/05/21 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SV Werder Bremen (W)	38-29	HSG Freiburg (W)
16/01/21 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	26-30	SV Werder Bremen (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	8	7	1	0	290	221	15
2	Fuchse Berlin (W)	8	6	2	0	279	233	14
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	8	7	0	1	250	217	14
4	HC Rodertal (W)	8	6	0	2	251	205	12
5	VfL Waiblingen (W)	8	6	0	2	241	202	12
6	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	8	6	0	2	251	228	12
7	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	7	4	2	1	218	182	10
8	Bergischer HC (W)	8	4	1	3	236	234	9
9	HSG Freiburg (W)	8	3	1	4	252	262	7
10	SV Werder Bremen (W)	8	3	0	5	238	254	6
11	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	8	2	1	5	220	238	5
12	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	7	2	0	5	178	218	4
13	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	8	1	1	6	235	279	3
14	TUS Lintfort (W)	8	1	0	7	206	244	2
15	SV Todesfelde (W)	8	0	1	7	225	267	1
16	Rostocker HC (W)	8	0	0	8	197	283	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Freiburg (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
TUS Lintfort (W)	34-28 W	35-34 W
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	33-33 D	27-36 L
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	33-35 L	32-34 L
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	24-29 L	22-34 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	38-29 W	33-32 W
HC Rodertal (W)	25-40 L	21-32 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HSG Freiburg (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Freiburg (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-28	W
31/10	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-33	D
24/10	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	40-30	W
17/10	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-35	L
10/10	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-29	L
19/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	38-29	W
12/09	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-39	L
05/09	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-39	L
30/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-40	L
23/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-34	L

SV Werder Bremen (W)

WWLLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-24	W
31/10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	37-29	W
17/10	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	21-32	L
10/10	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	30-31	L
20/09	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-34	W
12/09	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-36	L
05/09	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-34	L
29/08	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-34	L
30/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-32	W
23/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-34	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Freiburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)?

Our model gives 63% to HSG Freiburg (W).

How many points are expected in HSG Freiburg (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)?

The model estimates 63.4 total points (HSG Freiburg (W) 32 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 31.4).

Over or under 60.5 points?

Recent history points to over 60.5 points (80%).