Handball · Austria HLA · 21/10, 19:00

Prediction: HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat vs SC Ferlach

Team pages: HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat · SC Ferlach

Prediction summary

Estimated points

53.7Total

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat27.3

SC Ferlach26.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

55% 45%

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat SC Ferlach

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWWD

SC Ferlach 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDWDD

Head-to-head

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 3–1–2 SC Ferlach (6 last)

SC Ferlach26-26HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat29-25SC Ferlach
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat24-29SC Ferlach
SC Ferlach29-30HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
SC Ferlach28-24HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat30-24SC Ferlach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 1475 · SC Ferlach 1515

	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	SC Ferlach
Our model	54%	46%
Market	49%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 53.7 points · Bet365 line 54.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points53.7HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 27.3 · SC Ferlach 26.4

Match keys

H2H favours HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	SC Ferlach
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.6 / 27.3	27.3 / 27.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28 / 26.8	28.4 / 27
Est. result	27	26

Est. total53.7

Line O/U54.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.85

X7.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 54.51.95

Under 54.51.75

Diff.: 0.3 · Est. total: 54.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	8.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
2	2.60 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:22 +53’	1.67	8.00	2.60
10:06 +8’	1.85▲	7.50▼	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 54.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 3–1–2 SC Ferlach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Austria HLA	SC Ferlach	26-26	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
29/11/25 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	29-25	SC Ferlach
28/05/25 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	24-29	SC Ferlach
03/05/25 Austria HLA	SC Ferlach	29-30	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
06/12/24 Austria HLA	SC Ferlach	28-24	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
31/08/24 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	30-24	SC Ferlach

Standings · Austria HLA

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Handball Tirol	7	5	0	2	223	204	10
2	SC Ferlach	7	3	4	0	206	193	10
3	Fivers WAT Margareten	7	5	0	2	247	221	10
4	HC Linz AG	7	4	0	3	213	210	8
5	HSG Graz	6	4	0	2	197	195	8
6	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	8	3	2	3	229	219	8
7	Bregenz Handball	7	3	1	3	223	217	7
8	Alpla HC Hard	7	3	0	4	212	213	6
9	Voslauer HC	7	3	0	4	205	202	6
10	BT Fuchse	7	3	0	4	210	221	6
11	UHK Krems	7	1	2	4	199	212	4
12	WAT Atzgersdorf	7	0	1	6	185	242	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	SC Ferlach
UHK Krems	28-28 D	26-26 D
Voslauer HC	26-24 W	27-22 W
Alpla HC Hard	34-26 W	28-26 W
WAT Atzgersdorf	30-25 W	28-28 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

DLLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/10	UHK Krems Austria HLA	28-28	D
10/10	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	26-24	W
03/10	Alpla HC Hard Austria HLA	34-26	W
25/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	26-27	L
18/09	Handball Tirol Austria HLA	26-29	L
11/09	HSG Graz Austria HLA	29-30	L
04/09	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	30-25	W
06/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	26-28	L
02/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	25-30	L
18/04	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	26-26	D

SC Ferlach

LWLLWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	UHK Krems Austria HLA	26-26	D
03/10	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	28-28	D
26/09	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	27-22	W
19/09	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	33-33	D
09/09	Alpla HC Hard Austria HLA	28-26	W
05/09	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	34-28	W
27/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	20-24	L
22/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	23-25	L
09/05	UHK Krems Austria HLA	31-27	W
06/05	UHK Krems Austria HLA	23-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat vs SC Ferlach?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 55% · SC Ferlach 45%).

How many points are expected in HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat vs SC Ferlach?

The model estimates 53.7 total points (HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 27.3 · SC Ferlach 26.4).