Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 07/11, 18:30

Prediction: Rostocker HC (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Team pages: Rostocker HC (W) · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59Total

Rostocker HC (W)27.1

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)31.9

1X2

23% 77%

Rostocker HC (W) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Markets

Under 61.5 points 68%

Recent form · 10 last

Rostocker HC (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Rostocker HC (W) 0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (2 last)

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)32-27Rostocker HC (W)
Rostocker HC (W)28-371. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rostocker HC (W) 1373 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1542

	Rostocker HC (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Our model	36%	64%
Market	13%	80%

Estimated total (ours) 59 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59Rostocker HC (W) 27.1 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 31.9

Over / Under 61.5Under · 68%recent trend · ~59.3 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (rating 1373 vs 1542).
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W): 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Rostocker HC (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	24.5 / 34.2	29.6 / 29.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27 / 36.2	30.4 / 29.6
Est. result	27	32

Est. total59

Line O/U61.5

Diff.2.5

Over / Under32% / 68%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

17.00

X12.00

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.95

2 (-5.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 2.5 · Est. total: 59

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +36’	7.00	12.00	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rostocker HC (W) 0–0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	32-27	Rostocker HC (W)
08/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Rostocker HC (W)	28-37	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	7	6	1	0	252	195	13
2	Fuchse Berlin (W)	7	5	2	0	240	199	12
3	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	7	6	0	1	217	189	12
4	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	7	6	0	1	219	199	12
5	HC Rodertal (W)	7	5	0	2	221	183	10
6	VfL Waiblingen (W)	7	5	0	2	209	178	10
7	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	6	4	1	1	191	155	9
8	Bergischer HC (W)	7	4	1	2	210	196	9
9	HSG Freiburg (W)	7	2	1	4	218	234	5
10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	6	2	0	4	156	188	4
11	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	7	2	0	5	193	211	4
12	SV Werder Bremen (W)	7	2	0	5	204	230	4
13	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	7	1	1	5	211	247	3
14	TUS Lintfort (W)	7	1	0	6	178	210	2
15	SV Todesfelde (W)	7	0	1	6	201	233	1
16	Rostocker HC (W)	7	0	0	7	179	252	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rostocker HC (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)	30-40 L	29-24 W
Fuchse Berlin (W)	20-40 L	24-34 L
HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	24-31 L	29-26 W
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	18-27 L	27-30 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rostocker HC (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-40	L
24/10	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	30-40	L
17/10	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-38	L
10/10	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	20-29	L
19/09	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-34	L
12/09	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	20-40	L
05/09	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-31	L
30/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	18-27	L
23/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-29	L
16/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	23-34	L

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-34	L
17/10	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-26	W
10/10	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-24	W
19/09	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	39-34	W
12/09	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-30	W
05/09	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-29	W
29/08	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-22	W
30/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-37	L
23/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-31	L
16/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rostocker HC (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

Our model gives 77% to 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W).

How many points are expected in Rostocker HC (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

The model estimates 59 total points (Rostocker HC (W) 27.1 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 31.9).

Over or under 61.5 points?

Recent history points to under 61.5 points (68%).