Handball · France Division 1 Women · 07/10, 20:00

Prediction: Metz (W) vs Brest (W)

Team pages: Metz (W) · Brest (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.8Total

Metz (W)32.1

Brest (W)26.7

1X2

76% 24%

Metz (W) Brest (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Metz (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Brest (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Metz (W) 5–1 Brest (W) (6 last)

Metz (W)32-28Brest (W)
Metz (W)37-35Brest (W)
Brest (W)27-23Metz (W)
Brest (W)30-31Metz (W)
Metz (W)33-32Brest (W)
Brest (W)26-29Metz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metz (W) 1658 · Brest (W) 1580

	Metz (W)	Brest (W)
Our model	70%	30%
Market	73%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 58.8 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -1.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.8Metz (W) 32.1 · Brest (W) 26.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metz (W) (rating 1658 vs 1580).
Metz (W) is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours Metz (W): 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Metz (W)	Brest (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	37.7 / 23.3	31.1 / 25.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	38.8 / 22	33.4 / 25.8
Est. result	32	27

Est. total58.8

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 58.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	9.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00
2	3.30 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +30’	1.45	9.00	3.30
12:53 +1’	1.32▼	9.50▲	4.00▲
23:55 +1’	1.22▼	10.00▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Metz (W) 5–0–1 Brest (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	32-28	Brest (W)
28/02/26 France Cup Women	Metz (W)	37-35	Brest (W)
14/01/26 France Division 1 Women	Brest (W)	27-23	Metz (W)
11/05/25 France Division 1 Women	Brest (W)	30-31	Metz (W)
27/04/25 Champions League Women	Metz (W)	33-32	Brest (W)
19/04/25 Champions League Women	Brest (W)	26-29	Metz (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metz (W)	4	4	0	0	161	90	12
2	Brest (W)	4	3	0	1	124	104	10
3	ESBF Besancon (W)	4	3	0	1	111	99	10
4	Strasbourg (W)	4	3	0	1	107	104	10
5	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	4	2	0	2	115	113	8
6	St Amand du Hainaut (W)	4	2	0	2	104	105	8
7	Chambray Touraine (W)	4	2	0	2	103	98	8
8	Plan De Cuques (W)	4	2	0	2	98	103	8
9	Nice (W)	4	1	0	3	104	121	6
10	Stella St Maur (W)	4	1	0	3	93	123	6
11	Toulon (W)	4	0	1	3	109	130	5
12	Paris 92 (W)	4	0	1	3	105	144	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metz (W)	Brest (W)
Nice (W)	41-19 W	32-22 W
Plan De Cuques (W)	31-22 W	26-27 L
Paris 92 (W)	46-21 W	37-24 W
ESBF Besancon (W)	38-20 W	28-21 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Metz (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metz (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/09	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	43-28	W
09/09	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	41-19	W
02/09	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	31-22	W
29/08	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	46-21	W
31/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	33-20	W
27/05	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	32-31	W
16/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	50-25	W
09/05	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	38-20	W
06/05	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	31-19	W
03/05	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	32-28	W

Brest (W)

LWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/09	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	37-24	W
09/09	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	26-27	L
02/09	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	33-32	W
29/08	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	28-21	W
31/05	Sambre Avesnois (W) France Division 1 Women	43-25	W
27/05	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	32-22	W
15/05	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	29-26	W
09/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	28-25	W
06/05	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	27-22	W
03/05	Metz (W) France Division 1 Women	28-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metz (W) vs Brest (W)?

Our model gives 76% to Metz (W).

How many points are expected in Metz (W) vs Brest (W)?

The model estimates 58.8 total points (Metz (W) 32.1 · Brest (W) 26.7).