Handball · France Division 1 Women · 14/10, 20:00

Prediction: ESBF Besancon (W) vs Metz (W)

Team pages: ESBF Besancon (W) · Metz (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.8Total

ESBF Besancon (W)26.3

Metz (W)33.5

1X2

19% 81%

ESBF Besancon (W) Metz (W)

Markets

Under 61.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

ESBF Besancon (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWWWW

Metz (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

ESBF Besancon (W) 0–6 Metz (W) (6 last)

ESBF Besancon (W)20-38Metz (W)
Metz (W)38-27ESBF Besancon (W)
ESBF Besancon (W)27-33Metz (W)
Metz (W)31-24ESBF Besancon (W)
Metz (W)40-24ESBF Besancon (W)
ESBF Besancon (W)25-31Metz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESBF Besancon (W) 1527 · Metz (W) 1671

	ESBF Besancon (W)	Metz (W)
Our model	40%	60%
Market	5%	90%

Estimated total (ours) 59.8 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -1.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.8ESBF Besancon (W) 26.3 · Metz (W) 33.5

Over / Under 61.5Under · 75%recent trend · ~59.4 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metz (W) (rating 1527 vs 1671).
Metz (W) is a clear favourite (81% market).
H2H favours Metz (W): 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	ESBF Besancon (W)	Metz (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.5 / 28	37.8 / 23.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 24.8	38.8 / 24.2
Est. result	26	34

Est. total59.8

Line O/U61.5

Diff.1.7

Over / Under25% / 75%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

117.00

X20.00

21.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+11.5)1.85

2 (-11.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 58.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00
2	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +1’	17.00	20.00	1.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESBF Besancon (W) 0–0–6 Metz (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 France Division 1 Women	ESBF Besancon (W)	20-38	Metz (W)
28/01/26 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	38-27	ESBF Besancon (W)
03/05/25 France Division 1 Women	ESBF Besancon (W)	27-33	Metz (W)
01/03/25 France Cup Women	Metz (W)	31-24	ESBF Besancon (W)
06/11/24 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	40-24	ESBF Besancon (W)
10/08/24 Matches Women 2x25mins	ESBF Besancon (W)	25-31	Metz (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metz (W)	5	5	0	0	194	121	15
2	ESBF Besancon (W)	5	4	0	1	146	124	13
3	Strasbourg (W)	5	3	1	1	135	132	12
4	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	5	3	0	2	145	136	11
5	St Amand du Hainaut (W)	5	3	0	2	135	129	11
6	Brest (W)	5	3	0	2	155	137	11
7	Chambray Touraine (W)	5	3	0	2	134	121	11
8	Plan De Cuques (W)	5	2	0	3	121	134	9
9	Stella St Maur (W)	5	1	1	3	121	151	8
10	Nice (W)	5	1	0	4	127	151	7
11	Toulon (W)	5	0	1	4	133	161	6
12	Paris 92 (W)	5	0	1	4	130	179	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESBF Besancon (W)	Metz (W)
Paris 92 (W)	35-25 W	46-21 W
St Amand du Hainaut (W)	26-25 W	31-19 W
Stella St Maur (W)	36-22 W	50-25 W
Brest (W)	21-28 L	33-31 W
Nice (W)	26-30 L	41-19 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metz (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESBF Besancon (W)

LLLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	35-25	W
16/09	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	26-25	W
11/09	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	36-22	W
05/09	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	28-24	W
29/08	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	21-28	L
31/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	32-28	W
27/05	Sambre Avesnois (W) France Division 1 Women	35-26	W
15/05	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	26-30	L
09/05	Metz (W) France Division 1 Women	20-38	L
06/05	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	26-34	L

Metz (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/10	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	33-31	W
16/09	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	43-28	W
09/09	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	41-19	W
02/09	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	31-22	W
29/08	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	46-21	W
31/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	33-20	W
27/05	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	32-31	W
16/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	50-25	W
09/05	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	38-20	W
06/05	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	31-19	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESBF Besancon (W) vs Metz (W)?

Our model gives 81% to Metz (W).

How many points are expected in ESBF Besancon (W) vs Metz (W)?

The model estimates 59.8 total points (ESBF Besancon (W) 26.3 · Metz (W) 33.5).

Over or under 61.5 points?

Recent history points to under 61.5 points (75%).