Handball · France Proligue · 16/10, 20:00
Prediction: Valence vs Billere
Prediction summary
Estimated points
64.2Total
Valence30.6
Billere33.7
1X2
Valence
Billere
Markets
Under 63.5 points 70%
Recent form · 10 last
Valence
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Billere
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valence
2–4
Billere
(6 last)
- Billere39-31Valence
- Valence32-35Billere
- Billere33-28Valence
- Valence30-37Billere
- Billere23-27Valence
- Valence28-25Billere
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valence 1453 · Billere 1586
| Valence | Billere | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 30% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
64.2 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points64.2Valence 30.6 · Billere 33.7
Over / Under 63.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.3 pts · strength 2
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Billere (rating 1453 vs 1586).
- H2H favours Billere: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Valence | Billere | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 32.5 / 35.3 | 31.2 / 28.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 31.6 / 33.8 | 32.6 / 26.8 |
| Est. result | 31 | 34 |
Est. total64.2
Line O/U63.5
Diff.0.7
Over / Under30% / 70%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valence 2–0–4 Billere
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 France Proligue | Billere | 39-31 | Valence |
| 19/09/25 France Proligue | Valence | 32-35 | Billere |
| 21/02/25 France Proligue | Billere | 33-28 | Valence |
| 22/11/24 France Proligue | Valence | 30-37 | Billere |
| 22/03/24 France Proligue | Billere | 23-27 | Valence |
| 22/09/23 France Proligue | Valence | 28-25 | Billere |
Standings · France Proligue
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billere | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 158 | 12 |
| 2 | JS Cherbourg | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 183 | 12 |
| 3 | Ivry | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 171 | 10 |
| 4 | Cournon d'Auvergne | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 178 | 9 |
| 5 | Dijon | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 192 | 165 | 8 |
| 6 | Pontault-Combault | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 192 | 185 | 8 |
| 7 | Creteil | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 187 | 180 | 8 |
| 8 | Sarrebourg | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 173 | 180 | 6 |
| 9 | Val D'Oise | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 182 | 185 | 5 |
| 10 | Draguignan VHB | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 160 | 192 | 4 |
| 11 | US Saintes | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 171 | 177 | 4 |
| 12 | Grand Besançon | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 177 | 191 | 4 |
| 13 | Valence | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 193 | 205 | 4 |
| 14 | Istres Provence | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 162 | 170 | 2 |
| 15 | Massy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 172 | 195 | 2 |
| 16 | Frontignan | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 170 | 202 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valence | Billere |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Besançon | 30-34 L | 36-34 W |
| Ivry | 32-41 L | 28-31 L |
| Istres Provence | 33-29 W | 25-24 W |
| JS Cherbourg | 35-36 L | 37-29 W |
| Frontignan | 34-39 L | 27-24 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Billere (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valence
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Cournon d'Auvergne France Proligue |
33-33 | D |
| 02/10 | Grand Besançon France Proligue |
30-34 | L |
| 25/09 | Val D'Oise France Proligue |
30-32 | L |
| 17/09 | Ivry France Proligue |
32-41 | L |
| 11/09 | Istres Provence France Proligue |
33-29 | W |
| 05/09 | JS Cherbourg France Proligue |
35-36 | L |
| 24/05 | Pontault-Combault France Proligue |
33-36 | L |
| 20/05 | Pontault-Combault France Proligue |
30-32 | L |
| 07/05 | Frontignan France Proligue |
34-39 | L |
| 01/05 | Caen Handball France Proligue |
35-41 | L |
Billere
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Draguignan VHB France Proligue |
33-22 | W |
| 02/10 | Frontignan France Proligue |
27-24 | W |
| 25/09 | Massy France Proligue |
36-26 | W |
| 18/09 | Grand Besançon France Proligue |
36-34 | W |
| 11/09 | US Saintes France Proligue |
31-28 | W |
| 04/09 | Istres Provence France Proligue |
25-24 | W |
| 31/05 | Ivry France Proligue |
28-31 | L |
| 28/05 | Ivry France Proligue |
29-28 | W |
| 24/05 | JS Cherbourg France Proligue |
37-29 | W |
| 21/05 | JS Cherbourg France Proligue |
30-35 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valence vs Billere?
Our model gives 64% to Billere.
How many points are expected in Valence vs Billere?
The model estimates 64.2 total points (Valence 30.6 · Billere 33.7).
Over or under 63.5 points?
Recent history points to under 63.5 points (70%).