Football · England Northern League Division One · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Loughborough University vs Carlton Town
Team pages: Loughborough University · Carlton Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Loughborough University1.75
Carlton Town1.46
1X2
Loughborough University
Draw
Carlton Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Loughborough University
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Carlton Town
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loughborough University
0–1–1
Carlton Town
(2 last)
- Loughborough University0-3Carlton Town
- Carlton Town1-1Loughborough University
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loughborough University 1534 · Carlton Town 1471
| Loughborough University | Draw | Carlton Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loughborough University (rating 1534 vs 1471).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loughborough University | Carlton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/56/22% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.6 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughborough University 0–1–1 Carlton Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/25 England Northern League Division One | Loughborough University | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Carlton Town |
| 02/09/20 England FA Cup Qualification | Carlton Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Loughborough University |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loughborough University | Carlton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Long Eaton Utd | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Corby | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| Sutton Coldfield | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Shepshed Dynamo | 2-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loughborough University
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Rugby Borough England Northern League Division One |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/10 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/10 | Bourne Town England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Nuneaton Town England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Long Eaton Utd England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Corby England Northern League Division One |
1-1 | 3-3 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 25/08 | Grantham England Northern League Division One |
0-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 18/08 | Sutton Coldfield England Northern League Division One |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Belper Town England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 06/04 | Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Carlton Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Bedworth Utd England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 30/09 | Corby England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 15/09 | Long Eaton Utd England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 11/08 | Boldmere St Michaels England Northern League Division One |
0-3 | 0-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Racing Club Warwick England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Sutton Coldfield England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/03 | Anstey Nomads England Northern League Division One |
0-4 | 0-6 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/03 | Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/01 | Long Eaton Utd England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loughborough University vs Carlton Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughborough University win (44%). Probabilities: Loughborough University 44%, draw 25%, Carlton Town 31%.
How many goals are expected in Loughborough University vs Carlton Town?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Loughborough University 1.75 · Carlton Town 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Loughborough University vs Carlton Town?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.