Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/11, 22:00
Prediction: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Santa Fe
Team pages: Internacional de Bogota · Independiente Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Internacional de Bogota1.37
Independiente Santa Fe1.42
1X2
Internacional de Bogota
Draw
Independiente Santa Fe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional de Bogota
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Independiente Santa Fe
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional de Bogota
0–1
Independiente Santa Fe
(1 last)
- Independiente Santa Fe3-1Internacional de Bogota
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional de Bogota 1486 · Independiente Santa Fe 1516
| Internacional de Bogota | Draw | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional de Bogota | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional de Bogota 0–0–1 Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Internacional de Bogota |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 17 | 39 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 34 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 17 | 32 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 18 | 31 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 27 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 27 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 24 | 23 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 25 | 20 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 19 |
| 15 | Alianza | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 31 | 18 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 17 |
| 17 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 16 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 29 | 15 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 13 |
| 20 | Fortaleza CEIF | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Internacional de Bogota | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Alianza | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Deportivo Pereira | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Llaneros | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional de Bogota
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 29/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 17/09 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 05/11 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/10 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 29/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 23/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Santa Fe win (37%). Probabilities: Internacional de Bogota 35%, draw 28%, Independiente Santa Fe 37%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Internacional de Bogota 1.37 · Independiente Santa Fe 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.