Football · Argentina Championship Women · 12/11, 19:00
Prediction: San Lorenzo (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)
Team pages: San Lorenzo (W) · Union Santa Fe (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
San Lorenzo (W)2.59
Union Santa Fe (W)0.6
1X2
San Lorenzo (W)
Draw
Union Santa Fe (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo (W)
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe (W)
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo (W)
1–0
Union Santa Fe (W)
(1 last)
- Union Santa Fe (W)1-2San Lorenzo (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo (W) 1569 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1409
| San Lorenzo (W) | Draw | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 80% | 14% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1569 vs 1409).
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo (W) | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo (W) 1–0–0 Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/26 Argentina Championship Women | Union Santa Fe (W) | 1-2 | San Lorenzo (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors (W) | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Banfield (W) | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | San Luis FC (W) | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | San Lorenzo (W) | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Belgrano (W) | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Racing Club (W) | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 18 |
| 8 | River Plate (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 11 | Lanus (W) | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| 12 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 10 |
| 13 | CA Independiente Women | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 9 |
| 14 | Huracan (W) | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
| 15 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 7 |
| 16 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo (W) | Union Santa Fe (W) |
|---|---|---|
| CA Independiente Women | 5-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Huracan (W) | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Belgrano (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/10 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 10/08 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 02/10 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 07/09 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo (W) win (80%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo (W) 80%, draw 14%, Union Santa Fe (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model expects 3.19 goals (San Lorenzo (W) 2.59 · Union Santa Fe (W) 0.6), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.