Football · Mongolia Premier League · 06/11, 06:00

Prediction: FC Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions

Team pages: FC Ulaanbaatar · Central Stallions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

FC Ulaanbaatar2.37

Central Stallions1.73

1X2

52% 20% 28%

FC Ulaanbaatar Draw Central Stallions

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ulaanbaatar 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Central Stallions 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Ulaanbaatar 3–1–2 Central Stallions (6 last)

Central Stallions0-1FC Ulaanbaatar
FC Ulaanbaatar2-0Central Stallions
FC Ulaanbaatar2-3Central Stallions
Central Stallions0-3FC Ulaanbaatar
Central Stallions1-0FC Ulaanbaatar
FC Ulaanbaatar1-1Central Stallions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Ulaanbaatar 1634 · Central Stallions 1572

	FC Ulaanbaatar	Draw	Central Stallions
Our model	51%	21%	28%
Market	52%	20%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ulaanbaatar (rating 1634 vs 1572).
H2H favours FC Ulaanbaatar: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ulaanbaatar	Central Stallions
Goals for / against (FT)	5 / 0.5	3.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.3	1.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 8.5	3.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 5.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +7’	1.73	4.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ulaanbaatar 3–1–2 Central Stallions

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/26 Mongolia Premier League	Central Stallions	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ulaanbaatar
18/10/26 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	2-0 HT 1-0	Central Stallions
30/06/26 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	2-3 HT 0-3	Central Stallions
21/06/26 Mongolia Premier League	Central Stallions	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Ulaanbaatar
17/06/26 Mongolia Premier League	Central Stallions	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Ulaanbaatar
02/11/25 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	1-1 HT 0-0	Central Stallions

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ulaanbaatar	Central Stallions
Hunters FC	9-1 W	7-1 W
Deren FC	1-0 W	3-3 D
Khovd Western	8-0 W	8-4 W
Khans Khuns-Erchim	3-1 W	4-1 W
Ulaangom City FC	8-0 W	4-1 W
Khovd FC	4-0 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ulaanbaatar (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ulaanbaatar

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League	5-0	9-1	4	3	W
29/10	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/10	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
18/10	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
14/10	Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League	4-0	8-0	9	3	W
11/10	Khans Khuns-Erchim Mongolia Premier League	1-1	3-1	13	3	W
05/10	Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League	3-0	8-0	5	1	W
30/09	Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League	0-0	4-0	17	2	W
27/09	Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League	0-2	5-3	14	3	W
20/09	Amtat FC Mongolia Premier League	4-0	9-0	6	2	W

Central Stallions

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	1-1	3-3	3	5	D
29/10	Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League	3-1	7-1	6	1	W
25/10	FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
18/10	FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
11/10	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
04/10	Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League	2-0	8-4	7	3	W
01/10	Khans Khuns-Erchim Mongolia Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
26/09	Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League	3-0	4-1	7	1	W
21/09	Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League	3-0	6-0	5	1	W
17/09	Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League	1-0	3-0	12	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ulaanbaatar win (52%). Probabilities: FC Ulaanbaatar 52%, draw 20%, Central Stallions 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions?

The model expects 4.1 goals (FC Ulaanbaatar 2.37 · Central Stallions 1.73), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.