Football · Chile Primera B · 15/11, 22:00

Prediction: San Marcos De Arica vs San Luis Quillota

Team pages: San Marcos De Arica · San Luis Quillota

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

San Marcos De Arica1.09

San Luis Quillota1.12

1X2

35% 30% 36%

San Marcos De Arica Draw San Luis Quillota

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

San Marcos De Arica 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLDW

San Luis Quillota 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

San Marcos De Arica 3–2–1 San Luis Quillota (6 last)

San Luis Quillota1-0San Marcos De Arica
San Luis Quillota1-1San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica2-1San Luis Quillota
San Luis Quillota1-1San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica1-0San Luis Quillota
San Luis Quillota2-3San Marcos De Arica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1490 · San Luis Quillota 1592

	San Marcos De Arica	Draw	San Luis Quillota
Our model	33%	32%	35%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Luis Quillota (rating 1490 vs 1592).
H2H favours San Marcos De Arica: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Marcos De Arica	San Luis Quillota
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.55▲	Pinn 3.05 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.44
2	2.50 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +20’	2.45	3.25	2.50
19:51 +1’	2.55▲	3.25	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +2’	2.71	3.43	2.36
19:50 +1’	2.98▲	3.43	2.18▼
22:18 +8’	3.05▲	3.44▲	2.14▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 3–2–1 San Luis Quillota

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	1-0 HT 1-0	San Marcos De Arica
05/10/25 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	1-1 HT 1-0	San Marcos De Arica
24/05/25 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	2-1 HT 1-0	San Luis Quillota
13/10/24 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	1-1 HT 1-1	San Marcos De Arica
28/05/24 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	1-0 HT 1-0	San Luis Quillota
08/08/23 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	2-3 HT 0-2	San Marcos De Arica

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	52	30	54
2	San Luis Quillota	29	15	9	5	44	30	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	48	32	50
4	CD Antofagasta	29	13	9	7	51	26	48
5	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	45	44	46
6	San Marcos De Arica	29	11	10	8	35	28	43
7	Deportes Recoleta	29	11	9	9	41	43	42
8	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	43	42	41
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	34	37	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	42	33	38
11	Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	29	36	38
12	Deportes Temuco	30	9	9	12	46	45	36
13	Curico Unido	30	8	10	12	30	47	31
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	29	43	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	19	53	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	28	47	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Marcos De Arica	San Luis Quillota
Puerto Montt	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD Antofagasta	0-3 L	2-1 W
Club Deportes Santa Cruz	2-1 W	2-0 W
Deportes Recoleta	1-2 L	1-1 D
Cobreloa	0-2 L	4-2 W
Union Espanola	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: San Luis Quillota (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Marcos De Arica

LLLWLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
18/10	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/10	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
04/10	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/09	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
09/09	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
06/09	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	5	9	W
01/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
22/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
16/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-2	1-2	1	6	L

San Luis Quillota

WLWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
17/10	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	10	7	W
12/10	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
04/10	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/09	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
15/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
30/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
25/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
18/08	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	2-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Marcos De Arica vs San Luis Quillota?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Luis Quillota win (36%). Probabilities: San Marcos De Arica 35%, draw 30%, San Luis Quillota 36%.

How many goals are expected in San Marcos De Arica vs San Luis Quillota?

The model expects 2.21 goals (San Marcos De Arica 1.09 · San Luis Quillota 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Marcos De Arica vs San Luis Quillota?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.