Football · USA NWSL Women · 07/11, 04:00

Prediction: San Diego Wave (W) vs Utah Royals (W)

Team pages: San Diego Wave (W) · Utah Royals (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

San Diego Wave (W)1.91

Utah Royals (W)0.95

1X2

59% 23% 18%

San Diego Wave (W) Draw Utah Royals (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego Wave (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWDW

Utah Royals (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDLDL

Head-to-head

San Diego Wave (W) 6–0 Utah Royals (W) (6 last)

San Diego Wave (W)4-2Utah Royals (W)
Utah Royals (W)1-2San Diego Wave (W)
Utah Royals (W)2-3San Diego Wave (W)
San Diego Wave (W)3-2Utah Royals (W)
Utah Royals (W)1-2San Diego Wave (W)
San Diego Wave (W)2-0Utah Royals (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego Wave (W) 1590 · Utah Royals (W) 1460

	San Diego Wave (W)	Draw	Utah Royals (W)
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Diego Wave (W) (rating 1590 vs 1460).
H2H favours San Diego Wave (W): 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego Wave (W)	Utah Royals (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.83

Under 2.751.96

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.52
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.17
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.33 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +13’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:59 +9’	1.49	4.27	5.64
17:54 +17’	1.52▲	4.17▼	5.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego Wave (W) 6–0–0 Utah Royals (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	4-2 HT 2-1	Utah Royals (W)
23/03/26 USA NWSL Women	Utah Royals (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	San Diego Wave (W)
12/10/25 USA NWSL Women	Utah Royals (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	San Diego Wave (W)
23/03/25 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	3-2 HT 2-0	Utah Royals (W)
15/09/24 USA NWSL Women	Utah Royals (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	San Diego Wave (W)
09/05/24 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Utah Royals (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	30	18	7	5	39	23	61
2	San Diego Wave (W)	30	18	4	8	45	31	58
3	Washington Spirit (W)	30	17	4	9	43	28	55
4	Kansas City Current (W)	30	16	5	9	54	39	53
5	Angel City FC (W)	30	15	7	8	54	32	52
6	Portland Thorns (W)	30	14	8	8	50	41	50
7	Utah Royals (W)	30	14	5	11	44	39	47
8	Reign FC (W)	30	14	5	11	37	33	47
9	North Carolina Courage (W)	30	14	3	13	52	42	45
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	30	11	8	11	53	42	41
11	Orlando Pride (W)	30	11	3	16	39	47	36
12	Houston Dash (W)	30	9	6	15	38	44	33
13	Boston Legacy FC (W)	30	9	6	15	41	53	33
14	Bay FC (W)	30	7	6	17	30	47	27
15	Racing Louisville FC (W)	30	7	3	20	38	62	24
16	Chicago Stars (W)	30	5	2	23	17	71	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego Wave (W)	Utah Royals (W)
Boston Legacy FC (W)	2-2 D	1-2 L
North Carolina Courage (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Orlando Pride (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Racing Louisville FC (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kansas City Current (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Reign FC (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Diego Wave (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego Wave (W)

WWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
26/10	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
18/10	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
03/10	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/09	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
19/09	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
07/09	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
29/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	3-2	11	4	W
22/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	4-2	2	0	W

Utah Royals (W)

LWLWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
24/10	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
18/10	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
03/10	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
28/09	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/09	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
13/09	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
30/08	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
22/08	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	2-4	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego Wave (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego Wave (W) win (59%). Probabilities: San Diego Wave (W) 59%, draw 23%, Utah Royals (W) 18%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego Wave (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

The model expects 2.86 goals (San Diego Wave (W) 1.91 · Utah Royals (W) 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego Wave (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.