Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 15/11, 20:30

Prediction: Urena SC vs Barquisimeto

Team pages: Urena SC · Barquisimeto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Urena SC1.31

Barquisimeto1.49

1X2

32% 27% 40%

Urena SC Draw Barquisimeto

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Urena SC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDLDDD

Barquisimeto 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Urena SC 0–3–3 Barquisimeto (6 last)

Barquisimeto3-0Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto0-0Urena SC
Urena SC1-2Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Barquisimeto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urena SC 1455 · Barquisimeto 1508

	Urena SC	Draw	Barquisimeto
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barquisimeto (rating 1455 vs 1508).
H2H favours Barquisimeto: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urena SC	Barquisimeto
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.6 / 4	1.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.45 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +11’	2.45	3.30	2.45
16:47 +2’	2.20▼	3.30	2.75▲
18:19 +8’	2.75▲	3.30	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Urena SC 0–3–3 Barquisimeto

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	3-0 HT 2-0	Urena SC
09/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Barquisimeto
09/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-0 HT 0-0	Urena SC
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Barquisimeto
04/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 1-0	Urena SC
24/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Barquisimeto

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	32	21	7	4	56	24	70
2	Barquisimeto	32	16	8	8	58	36	56
3	Yaracuyanos	32	16	7	9	50	31	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	46	43	48
5	Zamora II	32	13	7	12	55	49	46
6	Atletico El Vigia	32	12	8	12	43	52	44
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	32	9	7	16	39	52	34
8	Atletico Barinas	32	9	5	18	50	63	32
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	27	74	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urena SC	Barquisimeto
CD Lara	2-2 D	0-1 L
Yaracuyanos	1-5 L	2-3 L
Atletico El Vigia	2-2 D	2-4 L
Atletico Barinas	0-0 D	2-1 W
Zamora II	0-3 L	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-2 W	1-1 D
Real Frontera	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barquisimeto (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Urena SC

WWLLDDLDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
01/11	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
25/10	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
18/10	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-5	5	3	L
11/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
20/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
17/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	2	9	W
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W

Barquisimeto

DWWWLLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/11	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
25/10	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	4-0	2	5	W
19/10	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
10/10	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-3	2-3	2	7	L
03/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-4	1	7	L
30/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
16/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barquisimeto win (40%). Probabilities: Urena SC 32%, draw 27%, Barquisimeto 40%.

How many goals are expected in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Urena SC 1.31 · Barquisimeto 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.