Prediction: FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC
Team pages: FC Ulaanbaatar · Deren FC
- Deren FC0-0FC Ulaanbaatar
- FC Ulaanbaatar2-3Deren FC
- Deren FC0-2FC Ulaanbaatar
- FC Ulaanbaatar2-0Deren FC
- Deren FC1-1FC Ulaanbaatar
- FC Ulaanbaatar4-1Deren FC
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Draw | Deren FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Market | 51% | 19% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ulaanbaatar (rating 1615 vs 1566).
- H2H favours FC Ulaanbaatar: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Deren FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.2 / 0.7 | 2.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.7 / 8.7 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ulaanbaatar 3–2–1 Deren FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/26 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 06/07/26 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Deren FC |
| 27/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 23/05/26 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deren FC |
| 26/10/25 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 11/06/25 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Deren FC |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ulaanbaatar | Deren FC |
|---|---|---|
| Central Stallions | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Khovd Western | 8-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Khans Khuns-Erchim | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Ulaangom City FC | 8-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Amtat FC | 9-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Ulaanbaatar (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ulaanbaatar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/10 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
4-0 | 8-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Khans Khuns-Erchim Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 05/10 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
3-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/09 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 5-3 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Amtat FC Mongolia Premier League |
4-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 06/07 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Deren FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Khans Khuns-Erchim Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/10 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Amtat FC Mongolia Premier League |
3-0 | 5-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
5-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 06/07 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ulaanbaatar win (50%). Probabilities: FC Ulaanbaatar 50%, draw 20%, Deren FC 30%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
The model expects 3.8 goals (FC Ulaanbaatar 2.16 · Deren FC 1.64), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.