Football · England National League Premier Women · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: Derby (W) vs Stoke (W)

Team pages: Derby (W) · Stoke (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Derby (W)1.03

Stoke (W)1.92

1X2

20% 23% 58%

Derby (W) Draw Stoke (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWDLW

Stoke (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Derby (W) 0–2–4 Stoke (W) (6 last)

Stoke (W)1-1Derby (W)
Derby (W)1-2Stoke (W)
Stoke (W)4-1Derby (W)
Stoke (W)2-0Derby (W)
Derby (W)1-2Stoke (W)
Stoke (W)1-1Derby (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby (W) 1474 · Stoke (W) 1551

	Derby (W)	Draw	Stoke (W)
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (W) (rating 1474 vs 1551).
H2H favours Stoke (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby (W)	Stoke (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:48 +22’	4.50	4.20	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby (W) 0–2–4 Stoke (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 England National League Premier Women	Stoke (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Derby (W)
29/10/25 England National League Premier Women	Derby (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Stoke (W)
12/02/25 England National League Premier Women	Stoke (W)	4-1 HT 2-1	Derby (W)
13/03/24 England National League Premier Women	Stoke (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Derby (W)
11/10/23 England National League Women	Derby (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Stoke (W)
13/11/22 England FA Cup Women	Stoke (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Derby (W)

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby (W)	Stoke (W)
Rugby Borough (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Liverpool Feds (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
Hull (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Burnley (W)	0-3 L	0-3 L
Loughborough Lightning (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Wolverhampton (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Derby (W) (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby (W)

LWDLLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Middlesbrough (W) England National League Premier Women	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
23/08	Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/04	Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
12/04	West Brom (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/03	Hull (W) England National League Premier Women	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
22/03	Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
22/02	Sporting Khalsa (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
18/02	Stoke (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/01	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
30/11	Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Stoke (W)

LLLWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-3	2	0	L
11/10	Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
04/10	Huddersfield (W) England National League Premier Women	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
20/09	Norwich (W) England National League Premier Women	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
13/09	Hull (W) England National League Premier Women	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
30/08	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
23/08	Boldmere St Michaels (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	5-1	7	4	W
26/04	Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
12/04	Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
29/03	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-1	9	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby (W) vs Stoke (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stoke (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Derby (W) 20%, draw 23%, Stoke (W) 58%.

How many goals are expected in Derby (W) vs Stoke (W)?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Derby (W) 1.03 · Stoke (W) 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby (W) vs Stoke (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.