Football · Myanmar National League · 25/10, 10:00

Prediction: Dagon Star United FC vs Thitsar Arman FC

Team pages: Dagon Star United FC · Thitsar Arman FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Dagon Star United FC2.4

Thitsar Arman FC1.26

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Dagon Star United FC Draw Thitsar Arman FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Dagon Star United FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Thitsar Arman FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dagon Star United FC 3–1–0 Thitsar Arman FC (4 last)

Thitsar Arman FC2-2Dagon Star United FC
Dagon Star United FC2-0Thitsar Arman FC
Thitsar Arman FC1-2Dagon Star United FC
Dagon Star United FC3-1Thitsar Arman FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dagon Star United FC 1572 · Thitsar Arman FC 1512

	Dagon Star United FC	Draw	Thitsar Arman FC
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dagon Star United FC (rating 1572 vs 1512).
H2H favours Dagon Star United FC: 3-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dagon Star United FC	Thitsar Arman FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	14/71/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:20 +7’	1.45	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dagon Star United FC 3–1–0 Thitsar Arman FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Myanmar National League	Thitsar Arman FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Dagon Star United FC
19/08/25 Myanmar National League	Dagon Star United FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Thitsar Arman FC
27/01/25 Myanmar National League	Thitsar Arman FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Dagon Star United FC
06/07/24 Myanmar National League	Dagon Star United FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Thitsar Arman FC

Standings · Myanmar National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yangon City	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
2	Dagon Star United FC	4	3	1	0	13	4	10
3	Yadanarbon FC	5	3	1	1	9	3	10
4	Shan Utd	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Yangon United FC	3	2	0	1	8	3	6
6	Thitsar Arman FC	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
7	Ispe FC	4	1	1	2	8	10	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
9	Mahar United	5	1	1	3	8	12	4
10	Ayeyawady Utd	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
11	Chinland FC	4	0	1	3	4	10	1
12	Myawady FC	3	0	1	2	2	8	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dagon Star United FC	Thitsar Arman FC
Ispe FC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Ayeyawady Utd	5-0 W	3-1 W
Hantharwady United	2-0 W	2-2 D
Yangon United FC	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dagon Star United FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dagon Star United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mahar United Myanmar National League	1-0	4-2	4	2	W
09/10	Ispe FC Myanmar National League	1-0	2-2	8	5	D
06/09	Ayeyawady Utd Myanmar National League	3-0	5-0	8	0	W
29/08	Hantharwady United Myanmar National League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/03	Yangon United FC Myanmar National League	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
09/03	Thitsar Arman FC Myanmar National League	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
03/03	Mahar United Myanmar National League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
24/02	Rakhine United Myanmar National League	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
19/02	Yadanarbon FC Myanmar National League	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/02	Ispe FC Myanmar National League	2-0	3-1	3	0	W

Thitsar Arman FC

LDDWDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ispe FC Myanmar National League	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
10/10	Ayeyawady Utd Myanmar National League	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
05/09	Hantharwady United Myanmar National League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
28/08	Myawady FC Myanmar National League	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
17/03	Yarmanya United FC Myanmar National League	–	5-0	–	–	W
09/03	Dagon Star United FC Myanmar National League	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
04/03	Ispe FC Myanmar National League	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/02	Ayeyawady Utd Myanmar National League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
20/02	Dagon Port FC Myanmar National League	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/02	Yangon United FC Myanmar National League	1-1	1-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dagon Star United FC vs Thitsar Arman FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dagon Star United FC win (62%). Probabilities: Dagon Star United FC 62%, draw 20%, Thitsar Arman FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Dagon Star United FC vs Thitsar Arman FC?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Dagon Star United FC 2.4 · Thitsar Arman FC 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dagon Star United FC vs Thitsar Arman FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.