Football · Myanmar National League · 24/10, 11:00

Prediction: Ayeyawady Utd vs Yadanarbon FC

Team pages: Ayeyawady Utd · Yadanarbon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Ayeyawady Utd0.77

Yadanarbon FC2.02

1X2

13% 20% 67%

Ayeyawady Utd Draw Yadanarbon FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ayeyawady Utd 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWLWLL

Yadanarbon FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Ayeyawady Utd 1–1–4 Yadanarbon FC (6 last)

Yadanarbon FC2-1Ayeyawady Utd
Ayeyawady Utd1-0Yadanarbon FC
Yadanarbon FC3-1Ayeyawady Utd
Ayeyawady Utd1-1Yadanarbon FC
Ayeyawady Utd0-1Yadanarbon FC
Yadanarbon FC3-0Ayeyawady Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ayeyawady Utd 1472 · Yadanarbon FC 1494

	Ayeyawady Utd	Draw	Yadanarbon FC
Our model	12%	22%	66%
Market	14%	18%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yadanarbon FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ayeyawady Utd	Yadanarbon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.88

2 (-1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
X	4.00 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.60 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +8’	4.20	4.00	1.60
23:31 +4’	5.50▲	4.50▲	1.42▼
06:59 +3’	5.00▼	4.20▼	1.48▲
10:59	6.25▲	5.00▲	1.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayeyawady Utd 1–1–4 Yadanarbon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Myanmar National League	Yadanarbon FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Ayeyawady Utd
26/10/25 Myanmar National League	Ayeyawady Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Yadanarbon FC
24/01/25 Myanmar National League	Yadanarbon FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Ayeyawady Utd
07/07/24 Myanmar National League	Ayeyawady Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Yadanarbon FC
08/12/23 Myanmar National League	Ayeyawady Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Yadanarbon FC
25/05/23 Myanmar National League	Yadanarbon FC	3-0 HT 3-0	Ayeyawady Utd

Standings · Myanmar National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yangon City	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
2	Dagon Star United FC	4	3	1	0	13	4	10
3	Yadanarbon FC	5	3	1	1	9	3	10
4	Shan Utd	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Yangon United FC	3	2	0	1	8	3	6
6	Thitsar Arman FC	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
7	Ispe FC	4	1	1	2	8	10	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
9	Mahar United	5	1	1	3	8	12	4
10	Ayeyawady Utd	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
11	Chinland FC	4	0	1	3	4	10	1
12	Myawady FC	3	0	1	2	2	8	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ayeyawady Utd	Yadanarbon FC
Dagon Star United FC	0-5 L	1-2 L
Dagon Port FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Shan Utd	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ayeyawady Utd

LWWDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Thitsar Arman FC Myanmar National League	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
06/09	Dagon Star United FC Myanmar National League	0-3	0-5	2	0	L
29/08	Ispe FC Myanmar National League	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
17/03	Mahar United Myanmar National League	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/03	Yarmanya United FC Myanmar National League	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
05/03	Yadanarbon FC Myanmar National League	1-1	1-2	13	2	L
26/02	Thitsar Arman FC Myanmar National League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/02	Rakhine United Myanmar National League	2-0	2-1	10	3	W
14/02	Dagon Port FC Myanmar National League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/02	Shan Utd Myanmar National League	0-2	1-3	5	3	L

Yadanarbon FC

LLWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hantharwady United Myanmar National League	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Myawady FC Myanmar National League	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/09	Yangon City Myanmar National League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
28/08	Chinland FC Myanmar National League	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
16/03	Dagon Port FC Myanmar National League	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/03	Yangon United FC Myanmar National League	1-1	2-3	2	1	L
05/03	Ayeyawady Utd Myanmar National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
24/02	Hantharwady United Myanmar National League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
19/02	Dagon Star United FC Myanmar National League	–	1-2	–	–	L
14/02	Shan Utd Myanmar National League	0-2	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ayeyawady Utd vs Yadanarbon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yadanarbon FC win (67%). Probabilities: Ayeyawady Utd 13%, draw 20%, Yadanarbon FC 67%.

How many goals are expected in Ayeyawady Utd vs Yadanarbon FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Ayeyawady Utd 0.77 · Yadanarbon FC 2.02), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ayeyawady Utd vs Yadanarbon FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.