Football · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · 28/10, 22:00

Prediction: CD Vendaval vs CD Fuerte Aguilares

Team pages: CD Vendaval

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

CD Vendaval1.37

CD Fuerte Aguilares1.32

1X2

37% 28% 35%

CD Vendaval Draw CD Fuerte Aguilares

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Vendaval 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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CD Fuerte Aguilares 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLLLD

Head-to-head

CD Vendaval 0–5 CD Fuerte Aguilares (5 last)

CD Fuerte Aguilares3-0CD Vendaval
CD Vendaval0-4CD Fuerte Aguilares
CD Fuerte Aguilares3-0CD Vendaval
CD Vendaval0-1CD Fuerte Aguilares
CD Fuerte Aguilares4-0CD Vendaval

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Vendaval 1433 · CD Fuerte Aguilares 1438

	CD Vendaval	Draw	CD Fuerte Aguilares
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Fuerte Aguilares: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Vendaval	CD Fuerte Aguilares
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	3.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +3’	2.40	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Vendaval 0–0–5 CD Fuerte Aguilares

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/26 El Salvador Segunda Division	CD Fuerte Aguilares	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Vendaval
31/03/24 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	CD Vendaval	0-4 HT 0-2	CD Fuerte Aguilares
11/02/24 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	CD Fuerte Aguilares	3-0	CD Vendaval
08/10/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	CD Vendaval	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Fuerte Aguilares
27/08/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	CD Fuerte Aguilares	4-0 HT 2-0	CD Vendaval

Standings · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · Apertura, Center-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Once Municipal	15	9	3	3	36	23	30
2	AD Izalco	14	9	2	3	26	18	29
3	UES	13	7	4	2	25	18	25
4	CD El Roble	13	7	3	3	16	9	24
5	Once Lobos Chalchuapa	15	6	4	5	21	21	22
6	CD Marte Soyapango	14	6	3	5	24	19	21
7	Nacional FC de Sonsonate	15	6	3	6	16	14	21
8	CD Adet Aruba	15	4	5	6	15	15	17
9	AD Academia BP	16	4	4	8	24	38	16
10	AD Forfut	14	4	3	7	24	26	15
11	CD Vendaval	15	2	4	9	12	29	10
12	CD Fuerte Aguilares	15	1	6	8	15	24	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Vendaval	CD Fuerte Aguilares
CD Marte Soyapango	2-2 D	1-4 L
CD El Roble	0-1 L	0-0 D
CD Adet Aruba	0-1 L	0-0 D
Once Lobos Chalchuapa	1-1 D	2-3 L
AD Izalco	1-2 L	0-2 L
Once Municipal	1-6 L	1-3 L
AD Forfut	0-1 L	1-1 D
UES	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: CD Fuerte Aguilares (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Vendaval

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
18/10	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/10	AD Academia BP El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
09/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/10	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
26/09	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-6	–	–	L
22/09	AD Forfut El Salvador Segunda Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	UES El Salvador Segunda Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	CD Fuerte Aguilares El Salvador Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	5	4	L

CD Fuerte Aguilares

WLLLDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AD Forfut El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-3	–	–	L
13/10	UES El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-3	4	6	L
11/10	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-4	–	–	L
04/10	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
01/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
26/09	Nacional FC de Sonsonate El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/09	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Segunda Division	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
15/09	CD Vendaval El Salvador Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Vendaval vs CD Fuerte Aguilares?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Vendaval win (37%). Probabilities: CD Vendaval 37%, draw 28%, CD Fuerte Aguilares 35%.

How many goals are expected in CD Vendaval vs CD Fuerte Aguilares?

The model expects 2.69 goals (CD Vendaval 1.37 · CD Fuerte Aguilares 1.32), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Vendaval vs CD Fuerte Aguilares?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.