Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 28/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Koper vs NK Maribor

Team pages: FC Koper · NK Maribor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Koper1.32

NK Maribor1.33

1X2

36% 27% 37%

FC Koper Draw NK Maribor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Koper 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWLWDW

NK Maribor 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

FC Koper 2–2–2 NK Maribor (6 last)

NK Maribor2-0FC Koper
FC Koper3-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor2-0FC Koper
FC Koper1-0NK Maribor
NK Maribor2-2FC Koper
FC Koper1-1NK Maribor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Koper 1555 · NK Maribor 1563

	FC Koper	Draw	NK Maribor
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Koper	NK Maribor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.70 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +14’	2.45	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +1868’	2.50	3.38	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Koper 2–2–2 NK Maribor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Koper
14/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	3-1 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
08/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Koper
19/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
03/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Koper
18/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Maribor

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	12	6	6	0	21	9	24
2	FC Koper	12	6	4	2	19	11	22
3	NK Bravo	12	5	4	3	14	13	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	5	3	4	14	11	18
5	NK Nafta 1903	12	5	2	5	18	16	17
6	NK Celje	11	4	4	3	12	11	16
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	12	3	4	5	16	13	13
8	NS Mura	12	2	5	5	13	24	11
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	12	3	2	7	15	25	11
10	NK Radomlje	11	1	4	6	14	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Koper	NK Maribor
NK Brinje Grosuplje	5-0 W	2-1 W
NK Radomlje	3-3 D	3-0 W
NK Nafta 1903	2-0 W	3-2 W
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-3 L	1-1 D
NK Celje	1-0 W	0-0 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	2-2 D
NS Mura	1-0 W	1-1 D
NK Bravo	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Koper (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Koper

DLDWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
10/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	10	8	D
19/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
12/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	4	8	L
06/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
28/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
09/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
02/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	10	9	D

NK Maribor

DWDWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
11/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
06/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-2	8	5	W
23/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-1	10	4	W
15/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
09/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Koper vs NK Maribor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Maribor win (37%). Probabilities: FC Koper 36%, draw 27%, NK Maribor 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Koper vs NK Maribor?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Koper 1.32 · NK Maribor 1.33), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Koper vs NK Maribor?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.