Football · Belarus Premier League · 07/11, 11:00
Prediction: Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC ML Vitebsk
Team pages: Naftan Novopolotsk · FC ML Vitebsk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Naftan Novopolotsk1.25
FC ML Vitebsk1.94
1X2
Naftan Novopolotsk
Draw
FC ML Vitebsk
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Naftan Novopolotsk
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
FC ML Vitebsk
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Naftan Novopolotsk
1–1–4
FC ML Vitebsk
(6 last)
- FC ML Vitebsk2-1Naftan Novopolotsk
- FC ML Vitebsk2-0Naftan Novopolotsk
- Naftan Novopolotsk0-3FC ML Vitebsk
- FC ML Vitebsk1-1Naftan Novopolotsk
- Naftan Novopolotsk2-3FC ML Vitebsk
- FC ML Vitebsk0-4Naftan Novopolotsk
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC ML Vitebsk (rating 1420 vs 1578).
- H2H favours FC ML Vitebsk: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Naftan Novopolotsk | FC ML Vitebsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/20/80% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 4.7 | – / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naftan Novopolotsk 1–1–4 FC ML Vitebsk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Belarus Premier League | FC ML Vitebsk | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 22/08/25 Belarus Premier League | FC ML Vitebsk | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 12/04/25 Belarus Premier League | Naftan Novopolotsk | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC ML Vitebsk |
| 14/07/24 Belarus Cup | FC ML Vitebsk | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 02/10/22 Belarus Division 1 | Naftan Novopolotsk | 2-3 HT 0-1 | FC ML Vitebsk |
| 22/05/22 Belarus Division 1 | FC ML Vitebsk | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
Standings · Belarus Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC ML Vitebsk | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 56 | 19 | 59 |
| 2 | Isloch | 27 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 51 | 21 | 58 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 23 | 58 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 27 | 50 |
| 5 | Neman Grodno | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 46 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 26 | 40 |
| 7 | FK Gomel | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 29 | 40 |
| 8 | Torpedo Zhodino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 35 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Minsk | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 40 | 34 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 38 | 31 |
| 11 | FC Baranovichi | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 43 | 31 |
| 12 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 44 | 27 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 50 | 24 |
| 14 | Dnepr Mogilev | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 41 | 23 |
| 15 | BATE Borisov | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 34 | 21 |
| 16 | Naftan Novopolotsk | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 65 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Naftan Novopolotsk | FC ML Vitebsk |
|---|---|---|
| Isloch | 0-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Torpedo Zhodino | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Belshina Bobruisk | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Minsk | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Dinamo Minsk | 1-5 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Vitebsk | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Neman Grodno | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC ML Vitebsk (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naftan Novopolotsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FC Baranovichi Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Isloch Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Torpedo Zhodino Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Belshina Bobruisk Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Slavia Mozyr Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/09 | BATE Borisov Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | Dinamo Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-4 | 1-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Vitebsk Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Neman Grodno Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
FC ML Vitebsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | FC Minsk Belarus Premier League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 28/10 | Isloch Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | FC Vitebsk Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Neman Grodno Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 15/10 | Torpedo Zhodino Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | FK Gomel Belarus Premier League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Dnepr Mogilev Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Dinamo Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 02/09 | Belshina Bobruisk Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC ML Vitebsk?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC ML Vitebsk win (52%). Probabilities: Naftan Novopolotsk 24%, draw 24%, FC ML Vitebsk 52%.
How many goals are expected in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC ML Vitebsk?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Naftan Novopolotsk 1.25 · FC ML Vitebsk 1.94), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC ML Vitebsk?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.