Football · Georgia Liga 3 · 16/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tbilisi vs FC Merani Tbilisi

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tbilisi · FC Merani Tbilisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Lokomotiv Tbilisi1.45

FC Merani Tbilisi1.37

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Lokomotiv Tbilisi Draw FC Merani Tbilisi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tbilisi 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDDLWW

FC Merani Tbilisi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWWDD

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tbilisi 4–2 FC Merani Tbilisi (6 last)

FC Merani Tbilisi1-0Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Lokomotiv Tbilisi5-0FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi0-2Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Lokomotiv Tbilisi5-2FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi3-2Lokomotiv Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi2-5Lokomotiv Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tbilisi 1565 · FC Merani Tbilisi 1507

	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	Draw	FC Merani Tbilisi
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tbilisi (rating 1565 vs 1507).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Tbilisi: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	FC Merani Tbilisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:59 +4’	2.30	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tbilisi 4–0–2 FC Merani Tbilisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Georgia Liga 3	FC Merani Tbilisi	1-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
01/12/23 Georgia First League	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	5-0 HT 3-0	FC Merani Tbilisi
22/09/23 Georgia First League	FC Merani Tbilisi	0-2 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
09/06/23 Georgia First League	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	5-2 HT 2-1	FC Merani Tbilisi
25/04/23 Georgia First League	FC Merani Tbilisi	3-2 HT 2-1	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
21/04/21 Georgia Cup	FC Merani Tbilisi	2-5 HT 1-3	Lokomotiv Tbilisi

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Didube 2014	3-1 W	2-2 D
FC Orbi	2-0 W	1-1 D
Wit Georgia	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Tbilisi 2025	3-3 D	0-2 L
Guria Lanchkhuti	1-0 W	0-5 L
Iveria Khashuri	0-0 D	2-2 D
FC Iberia 2010	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tbilisi (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tbilisi

WDWDWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Didube 2014 Georgia Liga 3	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
17/09	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	2-0	9	11	W
09/09	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/09	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
27/08	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-1	7	8	D
20/08	FC Gonio Georgia Liga 3	2-0	4-0	10	0	W
13/08	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
06/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	0	0	W
21/06	Iveria Khashuri Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
15/06	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

FC Merani Tbilisi

LWDDLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Iveria Khashuri Georgia Liga 3	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
17/09	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
10/09	Kolkheti Georgia Liga 3	2-0	4-1	8	0	W
03/09	FC Margveti 2006 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
27/08	Gardabani Georgia Liga 3	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
13/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Liga 3	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/08	FC Didube 2014 Georgia Liga 3	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/06	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
14/06	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/05	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tbilisi vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tbilisi win (39%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tbilisi 39%, draw 26%, FC Merani Tbilisi 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tbilisi vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Lokomotiv Tbilisi 1.45 · FC Merani Tbilisi 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tbilisi vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.