Football · Panama Liga Prom · 17/10, 03:00

Prediction: UMECIT Reserves vs Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

Team pages: UMECIT Reserves · Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

UMECIT Reserves1.4

Sporting San Miguelito Reserves1.49

1X2

35% 27% 39%

UMECIT Reserves Draw Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UMECIT Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLLD

Sporting San Miguelito Reserves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

UMECIT Reserves 1–1–4 Sporting San Miguelito Reserves (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito Reserves1-1UMECIT Reserves
UMECIT Reserves5-0Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves2-0UMECIT Reserves
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves1-0UMECIT Reserves
UMECIT Reserves0-2Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
UMECIT Reserves0-1Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMECIT Reserves 1440 · Sporting San Miguelito Reserves 1505

	UMECIT Reserves	Draw	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting San Miguelito Reserves (rating 1440 vs 1505).
H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito Reserves: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMECIT Reserves	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +23’	2.55	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMECIT Reserves 1–1–4 Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Panama Liga Prom	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	UMECIT Reserves
12/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	5-0 HT 2-0	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
23/01/26 Panama Liga Prom	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	2-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT Reserves
30/10/25 Panama Liga Prom	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT Reserves
10/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	0-2 HT 0-2	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
03/05/25 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academia Costa Del Este	12	8	1	3	25	17	25
2	Panama City FC	11	6	4	1	13	6	22
3	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
4	CD Arabe Unido Reserves	11	4	3	4	19	11	15
5	UMECIT Reserves	11	2	3	6	13	23	9
6	Champions FC Academy	12	2	3	7	16	31	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMECIT Reserves	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves	0-0 D	0-1 L
Chorrillo	0-3 L	1-0 W
San Martin FC	2-4 L	1-0 W
Plaza Amador Reserves	4-6 L	0-4 L
Tauro FC Reserves	0-2 L	2-3 L
Potros Del Este	1-1 D	2-1 W
Panama City FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Champions FC Academy	3-1 W	3-5 L
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	0-3 L	1-0 W
Academia Costa Del Este	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting San Miguelito Reserves (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMECIT Reserves

LLWWDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/09	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
20/09	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	2-4	2	10	L
12/09	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	4-6	13	6	L
04/09	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
30/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
08/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/07	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	3	5	L

Sporting San Miguelito Reserves

WLDWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-4	–	–	L
24/09	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-3	2-3	7	7	L
17/09	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-1	16	8	W
11/09	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
05/09	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
21/08	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
14/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
07/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	1-4	3-5	9	5	L
31/07	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMECIT Reserves vs Sporting San Miguelito Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting San Miguelito Reserves win (39%). Probabilities: UMECIT Reserves 35%, draw 27%, Sporting San Miguelito Reserves 39%.

How many goals are expected in UMECIT Reserves vs Sporting San Miguelito Reserves?

The model expects 2.89 goals (UMECIT Reserves 1.4 · Sporting San Miguelito Reserves 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UMECIT Reserves vs Sporting San Miguelito Reserves?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.